XRP is coiling at the edge of a potential breakout while the market counts down to a pivotal Federal Reserve decision. Price has been compressing around $2.80–$2.90 with volatility crushed across timeframes — the kind of setup that often precedes a sharp expansion. With odds leaning toward a 25–50 bps rate cut after a weak jobs report, XRP could be just one strong catalyst away from reclaiming the $3 handle — or slipping back to deeper support if expectations are disappointed.

What’s happening right now

XRP has defended the $2.75–$2.80 support multiple times amid a tight range. Bollinger Bands on the daily and 4H are narrowing, signaling an imminent move. On the 1H, buyers are consistently absorbing dips below $2.80, hinting at underlying accumulation. The psychological $3 level remains a magnet once momentum kicks in.

Why the Fed decision could be the spark

Lower rates typically push capital toward risk assets. A dovish Fed would loosen financial conditions and can reignite flows into crypto. There’s a paradox to watch: inflation is still above target, so if cuts stoke inflation expectations, Bitcoin-as-hedge dynamics could lift the entire market — XRP included. If cuts stabilize growth, altcoins often benefit from liquidity rotation.

Key levels that will decide the move

• First momentum cue: reclaim and hold above $2.85 on lower timeframes.
• Breakout confirmation: a 4H/daily close above $2.90 opens $3.05 then $3.20–$3.25; sustained momentum could stretch toward $3.50.
• Line in the sand: lose $2.80 and risks increase for a slide to $2.65–$2.60, with $2.30 a deeper support if panic accelerates.

Actionable trade plan (example)

• Event-aware entries: Consider waiting for a confirmed 4H/daily close above $2.90 to reduce fakeout risk; alternatively, use staged entries above $2.85 with tight risk controls.
• Risk management: For breakout attempts, typical invalidation is a decisive return below $2.80; for breakdown plays, invalidation is a swift reclaim of $2.85–$2.90.
• Targets: Scale at $3.05 and $3.20–$3.25; leave a runner only if momentum and volume expand.
• Order tactics: Ahead of FOMC, consider OCO setups (e.g., buy stop above $2.90 / sell stop below $2.80) but reduce size to account for slippage.

Risks to respect

• FOMC whipsaws: Spreads widen and liquidity thins during headlines; wick traps around $2.80–$2.90 are common.
• BTC beta: XRP’s path still depends on Bitcoin’s initial post-Fed reaction and overall risk appetite.
• Macro crosscurrents: Surprise hawkish tone or hot inflation data can invalidate bullish setups quickly.
• Derivatives stress: Elevated leverage can trigger cascading liquidations in either direction.

Bottom line

This is a classic compression-at-support play into a major macro catalyst. The $2.80–$2.90 zone is the battleground; traders who plan entries, invalidations, and scaling before the Fed outcome will be best placed to capture the move while controlling downside. Let the market tip its hand — then execute with discipline.

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