Bitcoin is tiptoeing above $112,000 while a key on-chain gauge flashes its first warning in weeks: the short‑term holder MVRV sits at 1.03. That means the average short‑term holder is up only about 3%—one sharp move and they flip into loss, historically a trigger for faster corrections. At the same time, Binance’s stablecoin reserves just hit a record near $39B after a single‑day inflow of $6.2B, signaling massive dry powder. With PPI data due and the FOMC widely expected to cut rates, liquidity and nerves are building for a decisive next leg.

What’s happening now

Bitcoin trades around $112,280 (+0.67% daily), recovering but still within a month‑long corrective structure. The STH realized price fluctuates between $108K–$109K, keeping short‑term holders near break‑even. The STH MVRV = 1.03 confirms thin margins: small drawdowns can force capitulation.

Macro risk is live: U.S. PPI/Core PPI prints are up next, while markets price a near‑certain FOMC rate cut. Broader risk tones are cautiously positive (equities futures firmer, DXY ~97.8, crude edging up). On the crypto plumbing side, Binance stablecoin reserves at an all‑time high suggest fresh buying power and potential volatility around data.

Why this matters to traders

- When STH MVRV hovers near 1.0, corrections often intensify as short‑term holders realize losses. That puts the $108K–$109K band in focus as a magnet/liquidity pocket. - Record stablecoin reserves historically correlate with higher market participation—fuel for both squeezes and rescue bids. - Event risk (PPI, FOMC) can amplify moves, turning a tight MVRV into either a breakout catalyst or a stop‑run.

Actionable setup: Trade the STH break‑even band

• Define your map: STH realized band $108K–$109K = key support/liquidity. Immediate resistance sits near recent local highs in the low $113Ks.
• Scenario A — Weak data/risk‑off: Fade bounces into $112.5K–$113.5K only if momentum stalls; target a sweep into $109K. Invalidate on strong reclaim and volume above the local highs.
• Scenario B — Soft PPI + dovish cut: Wait for a 1H close above $113.5K–$114K with rising volume/open interest; ride a squeeze, keep stops tight beneath the breakout level.
• Buy‑the‑dip plan (if you must): Ladder bids near $108.5K–$109.3K with hard invalidation just below the band; take partials quickly on first bounce.
• Risk controls: De‑leverage into events, pre‑set stops, and size down. Consider hedges (puts/short perps) through the prints.
• On‑chain/flow triggers: If STH MVRV drops toward 1.0 or below, expect volatility spikes. Sustained net stablecoin inflows and rising reserves support dip‑buying; outflows warn of exhaustion.

Key risks to respect

- Event whipsaws: PPI/FOMC can create fast wicks and liquidity gaps. - Correlation vs. causation: Big exchange reserves don’t guarantee immediate upside; they can precede both rips and rug‑pulls. - MVRV pivot: A clean break below 1.0 can accelerate sell pressure as STHs cut risk.

Bottom line

BTC is balanced on a knife’s edge: a fragile MVRV 1.03 near STH break‑even meets record $39B stablecoin firepower and binary macro catalysts. Map your levels, prepare both scenarios, and let data and flow confirm before committing size.

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