A major bank just doubled down on a six‑figure Bitcoin path even as headlines scream about geopolitics. Standard Chartered sees BTC pushing toward $135,000 by Q3 and potentially $200,000 by end‑2025—crediting relentless ETF inflows and rising corporate treasury demand. If the market’s next leg is institution-led, the window to position before confirmation may be shorter than most expect.

What Standard Chartered Just Said

The bank’s head of digital asset research, Geoff Kendrick, argues that Bitcoin’s uptrend should resume, supported by continued strong ETF demand and treasury buying. Notably, Standard Chartered is not assigning downside pressure to U.S.–China trade tensions, countering fears that macro frictions will derail crypto risk appetite.

Why It Matters to Traders

Institutional flows set the tone in this cycle. Spot BTC ETF demand directly absorbs supply, tightening float and amplifying price moves. As corporates allocate to BTC for diversification, the marginal buyer is larger, steadier, and price‑insensitive compared to retail—creating asymmetric upside in risk‑on phases and shallower dips when inflows persist.

Key Drivers to Watch

• Daily ETF net flows: Sustained multi‑session positive net inflows historically correlate with trend continuation. Watch U.S. spot BTC ETF flow prints and custody AUM trajectories.
• Corporate treasury signals: Policy updates, board approvals, or filings that add BTC to balance sheets can catalyze step‑function demand.
• Momentum breadth: Bullish RSI structure and MACD crossovers on higher timeframes (daily/weekly) support trend durability.
• Liquidity conditions: Funding rates, perp basis, and options skew reveal overheating or fear—key for timing entries/exits.

Risks That Could Break the Thesis

• Flow reversal: ETF outflows over multiple sessions or a stall in corporate buying can blunt upside quickly.
• Macro shock: Unexpected rate re‑pricing, liquidity withdrawal, or regulatory actions impacting ETF operations or exchange access.
• Technical failure: Loss of key weekly support zones and breadth deterioration despite “good news” (a sign of distribution).

Actionable Setup

Consider a plan that respects both the flow regime and key levels:

• Anchor to flows: Treat consecutive positive ETF net inflows as a risk‑on signal; reduce risk if three or more sessions flip negative.
• Stagger entries: Scale in on pullbacks to rising 20D/50D MAs or prior breakout retests; avoid chasing vertical candles.
• Confirm with momentum: Prefer entries when daily RSI holds above 50 and weekly MACD is crossed up.
• Define risk: Place stops below recent swing lows or invalidation levels; size positions so a stop‑out is tolerable.
• Monitor catalysts: Earnings season treasury updates, ETF AUM milestones, and regulatory headlines can accelerate trend shifts.

Bottom Line

Standard Chartered’s path to $135K–$200K leans on a simple but powerful idea: sustained institutional demand and shrinking liquid supply. For traders, the edge is in tracking the flow regime, letting momentum confirm, and managing downside if the flows blink.

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