Bitcoin just cooled from recent highs, but the real story may be unfolding in the shadows: Shiba Inu is pressing into a tight, months-long descending wedge against Bitcoin while momentum quietly flips. With SHIB hovering above a fragile support cluster and BTC showing routine pullback dynamics, traders are staring at a potential turning point—one that rewards confirmation and punishes impatience.

What’s Happening Now

SHIB is trading near $0.000009642, down about 5.6% in 24 hours, with a market cap near $5.68B and a circulating supply already near the fully diluted total. That means dilution risk is limited; price action hinges more on demand and flows. Volume sits around $134M, showing steady participation without blow-off speculation.

On the SHIB/BTC chart, price has compressed inside a long-running wedge since the 2021 highs. Price made lower lows while oscillators formed higher lows—classic bullish divergence that often precedes trend shifts. The upper wedge boundary is the key trigger.

Bitcoin trades around $107,000–$111,000 after a mild pullback, with roughly $44.37B in 24h volume—more consistent with a reset than a breakdown. With ~94% of BTC supply mined, scarcity remains a core long-term driver, keeping macro context broadly constructive for risk if price stabilizes.

Why It Matters to Traders

- A SHIB/BTC breakout could signal relative strength rotation into higher-beta assets—but only if confirmed by volume expansion. - SHIB’s full supply in circulation reduces dilution but not volatility. Liquidity is solid, yet whipsaws remain likely near inflection points. - BTC resting above $107k preserves the risk backdrop. A decisive reclaim of $111k typically lifts beta; a loss of $107k can pressure alts.

Actionable Game Plan

• Wait for confirmation: For SHIB/BTC, look for a clean break and 4h close above the wedge top with volume at least 1.5x recent average. Aggressive entries risk chop.
• Respect SHIB/USD levels: The $0.0000095–$0.0000096 zone is pivotal. A higher low above it improves the bull case; repeated rejections warn of continuation.
• Define invalidation: Consider a tight invalidation below $0.0000093 on SHIB/USD to cap downside if the structure fails.
• Position sizing: Keep risk per trade modest (e.g., 0.5–1.0% of equity). Avoid leverage that forces liquidation through routine volatility.
• BTC guardrails: A hold of $107k–$108k with a push back over $111k supports risk-on; failure increases breakdown risk across alts.
• Data confirms moves: Track volume and velocity—SHIB’s baseline ~$134M needs meaningful expansion on any breakout to validate follow-through.

Key Levels and Signals

• SHIB/USD: Support $0.0000095–$0.0000096; invalidation $0.0000093.
• SHIB/BTC: Break, close, and ideally retest above the wedge top for a higher-probability trend shift.
• Volume: Look for >1.5x recent average volume to confirm a real move, not a stop-run.
• BTC: Range $107,000–$111,000; reclaiming $111k improves risk appetite, losing $107k pressures alts.

Caution: Memecoin Risk

Shiba Inu is a memecoin. It is highly speculative, narrative-driven, and prone to rapid swings from whale flows and sentiment shifts. Do not treat it as a fundamental investment. Manage exposure tightly, expect slippage in fast markets, and avoid over-leverage. If confirmation fails, step aside—capital preservation beats forced entries.

The Bottom Line

The setup is promising but unfinished: SHIB shows improving momentum within a compressing structure, while BTC’s pullback looks routine. Let the market prove itself with breakout + volume, define your risk, and trade the reaction—not the prediction.

If you don't want to miss any crypto news, follow my account on X.