Markets love certainty—Powell offered nuance. After a weekend pop, crypto opened the week on its back foot as Bitcoin slipped from the $117,000 spike to hover around $112,000–$113,000, and Ethereum cooled from a new cycle high near $4,950 to $4,636. The Fed Chair’s Jackson Hole tone leaned dovish but firmly data‑dependent, and traders are quickly repricing risk ahead of a macro-heavy week where a single print can swing funding, liquidity, and trend.

What just happened

Crypto’s total market cap fell about 2.35% to $3.89T. Powell signaled the door is open to a less restrictive stance and a possible rate cut next month—without committing. That ambiguity triggered a fade of weekend gains as participants reverted to “prove it” mode on incoming data.

Why this matters now

Rates drive the discount rate on risk assets. Softer inflation and cooling labor data support multiple expansion in crypto; hot data delays cuts and tightens financial conditions, pressuring high-beta coins. Add an Nvidia earnings catalyst that steers AI risk appetite, and you have cross‑asset volatility that bleeds into BTC and ETH.

This week’s high-impact catalysts

• Tue: CB Consumer Confidence — fresh read on inflation expectations and spending.
• Thu: Q2 GDP revision (HSBC eyes 3.2% vs. 3.0%) + Jobless Claims — growth momentum and labor cooling.
• Fri: Core PCE — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge; the week’s top print.
• Aug 27: Nvidia earnings — Reuters expects EPS up 48% and revenue near $46B; watch AI risk spillover.

Key crypto levels to watch

• BTC: $112,000 flash-crash wick / $113,000 pivot; resistance near $117,000. A daily close above 117k opens room; loss of 112k risks momentum unwind.
• ETH: Support $4,500; resistance $4,950. Acceptance above 4,950 targets fresh price discovery; below 4,500 invites mean reversion.
• Alts: TRX, BCH, LTC under pressure (down up to 5%); relative strength in LINK and Hyperliquid hints at selective rotation.

Actionable game plan

• De‑risk into data: Trim leverage 12–24h before confidence, GDP/claims, and Core PCE.
• Bracket volatility: Use stop‑limit entries around BTC $112k–$113k and $117k; for ETH, $4.5k and $4.95k.
• Follow funding and basis: Rising funding + falling price = crowded longs; watch for squeeze risk.
• Correlate with AI risk: If NVDA beats and guides higher, risk-on may lift BTC/ETH; miss or soft guide favors defensiveness.
• Rotate selectively: Overweight relative-strength names on pullbacks; avoid chasing alts with deteriorating breadth.

Risk controls worth keeping

• Pre-plan invalidation: Hard stops just beyond key levels; no “mental” stops on data days.
• Position sizing: Scale smaller into prints; add only on confirmation (close above resistance or reclaim of support).
• Liquidity traps: Expect wicks around the first 5–15 minutes after each release; let the first move exhaust before committing.

Bottom line

Powell’s dovish tilt is an invitation—not a promise. This week’s macro and NVDA print will decide whether crypto resumes trend or mean‑reverts. Trade the levels, respect the calendar, and let the data lead your bias. If you don't want to miss any crypto news, follow my account on X.