A legendary Bitcoin whale who banked roughly $200M shorting the Oct. 10 crash is back with a fresh, high-conviction bet: a $234M short on Hyperliquid placed as BTC’s rebound stalled near $114,000 and slipped to around $108,500. With a stated $123,000 liquidation level, this position draws a visible line in the sand—telegraphing where a forced unwind could ignite a violent squeeze while keeping near-term downside firmly on the table.

What’s Happening

On-chain analytics firm Arkham tracked the OG whale as they rapidly sized into a new BTC short on the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid. The move followed a brisk recovery from the Oct. 10 low near $104,000 that lost momentum at $114,000. Since then, price has retraced to the $108K–$109K area, keeping the market in a tense mid-range while that $123K liquidation hovers as a potential squeeze magnet.

Why It Matters to Traders

A single, publicized mega-short can reshape order flow. If price migrates toward $123K, aggressive buyers may hunt the liquidation, forcing a short squeeze. Conversely, a failure to reclaim $114K could embolden bears to press toward $104K liquidity—and below. Macro remains a wild card: the Oct. 10 plunge followed tariff headlines and exchange fragility, reminding traders that policy shocks and platform issues can amplify volatility without warning.

Key Levels and Scenarios

- Resistance: $114,000 (recent rally cap). Above here, momentum buyers may target $120K–$123K, risking a squeeze if the whale’s short comes under pressure. - Pivot/Risk Marker: $112K–$114K rejection keeps the path open back toward range mid and lows. - Support: $104,000 (Oct. 10 low). A clean break below opens the door to a deeper flush into high-velocity liquidity pockets sub-$100K. - Squeeze Line: $123,000 whale liquidation—if tagged, expect disorderly moves and cascading covers.

Actionable Playbook

• Define invalidation: For shorts, a sustained 4H close above $114K weakens the bear case; a move toward $120K–$123K raises squeeze risk. For longs, loss of $106K–$104K increases downside momentum.
• Manage leverage: Keep position sizes smaller than usual and widen stops; expect whipsaws around $112K–$114K and near $123K.
• Monitor funding and OI: Rising positive funding with climbing OI into resistance signals crowding—ripe for squeezes. Negative funding into supports suggests potential mean reversion bounces.
• Track the wallet: Use Arkham and Hyperliquid dashboards to see if the whale adds, hedges, or de-risks. Adjust bias if they materially change exposure.
• Use options for protection: Protective puts under $104K or put spreads can hedge spot/long perps; short-dated calls can partially cover a squeeze risk without overcommitting capital.
• Stagger entries/exits: Ladder orders around $109K–$106K and $112K–$114K instead of all-in moves. Avoid chasing candles near liquidation clusters.
• Plan for platform risk: Keep collateral diversified, maintain alternative execution venues, and be prepared for elevated spreads or latency during volatility spikes.

Risk Factors to Respect

• Headline shocks: Tariff and geopolitics-driven moves can override technicals.
• Exchange instability: Prior outages amplified the Oct. 10 selloff; slippage risk remains elevated.
• Attribution uncertainty: On-chain labels can be fallible; don’t anchor solely to a single wallet’s intent.
• Crowding risk: If the market dogpiles the same trade, reversals become faster and sharper.

Stay nimble: let levels guide decisions, prioritize risk controls, and be ready for a two-sided market where a single liquidation line can flip the script in minutes. If you don't want to miss any crypto news, follow my account on X.