Traders woke up to a rare mix of macro heat and micro opportunity: Bitcoin hovering near $116.6K, a potential Trump–Putin development on deck, and the Jackson Hole week poised to stir rates expectations. In the last hour, analysts spotlighted a single line that could unlock SEI’s next leg, a must-reclaim zone for BTC, and a simple, repeatable profit-taking framework for ETH after an 80% monthly run. Here’s the distilled playbook to navigate the next moves—before volatility chooses a direction.

What’s Moving the Tape

Geopolitics is colliding with macro: any positive readout from the Alaska meeting or follow-on talks could nudge risk appetite, while PPI sensitivity remains elevated heading into Jackson Hole. Translation for traders: expect headline risk, whipsaws, and liquidity air pockets around key levels—not a guaranteed melt-up.

SEI: One Line to Beat

Analyst reads keep SEI in a constructive uptrend near local highs, with the critical resistance at $0.39. A recent “Monaco” integration reportedly backed by Sei Labs adds utility narrative support, while ongoing RWA momentum is a tailwind. - What to trade: a confirmed breakout above $0.39 with rising volume. - Validation: 4H close and sustained acceptance above prior high; rising spot-led demand. - Invalidation: failure back below the breakout base or loss of the most recent higher low. - Risk notes: watch funding spikes; don’t chase wicks—wait for a retest and hold.

Bitcoin: Reclaim or Range

BTC remains range-bound for ~6 weeks, having retested the 0.786 Fib. Bulls need a clean reclaim of the ~$117.5K region, aligning with the 4H 200MA/EMA

Ethereum: Turn Gains Into Equity

ETH’s ~80% monthly surge is a reminder: bank the move. The strategy is simple and repeatable—scale out into strength, then buy pullbacks when momentum cools. - Tactics: laddered exits into resistance; staggered re-entries at support confluence (MA + prior S/R). - Goal: improve average entry quality and reduce drawdown while compounding gains. - Tip: anchor risk to structure, not emotions—corrections are opportunities, not verdicts.

Actionable Checklist for Today

• Set alerts: BTC $117.5K reclaim; SEI $0.39 breakout; ETH pullbacks to support.
• Wait for confirmation: 4H close and volume confirmation over levels—avoid first-touch FOMO.
• Define invalidation: pre-set stops under last higher low or failed retest levels.
• Size by volatility: reduce leverage into events (PPI headlines, Jackson Hole commentary).
• Monitor derivatives: funding/OOI spikes without spot demand = trap risk.
• Journal scenarios: plan entries/exits for both reclaim and rejection outcomes.

Risks to Respect

Macro headlines can instantly flip sentiment; low-liquidity pockets amplify moves; aggressive leverage near event windows invites liquidations. Avoid anchoring to narratives—price confirmation is your filter.

Bottom Line

Trade the levels, not the noise: SEI needs $0.39, BTC needs ~$117.5K, and ETH rewards disciplined profit-taking with patient re-entries. Keep risk tight, let confirmation lead, and be ready to act when price shows its hand.

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