Ripple’s co-founder Chris Larsen is selling XRP into strength again — and the market is feeling it. With roughly $764M in realized profits since 2018 and price now about 34% below its July high of $3.66, traders are staring at a tug-of-war between whale supply and improving technical signals. Whether XRP can reclaim critical moving averages in the $2.55–$2.94 band may decide if this pullback becomes a full-on reversal or just a pause before another leg down.

What’s happening

Large, well-timed XRP distributions tied to Chris Larsen have resurfaced, including a recent 50M XRP transfer acknowledged as an investment into the Evernorth treasury. On-chain estimates suggest Larsen still controls up to $9B worth of XRP, a potential source of ongoing sell pressure near local highs. Technically, XRP is battling to retake its 20‑day EMA (~$2.55) and the 200‑day SMA (~$2.60), with the $2.74–$2.80 zone acting as nearby supply.

Why this matters to traders

Whale-driven supply events can cap rallies, thin liquidity around key levels, and trigger false breakouts. At the same time, improving momentum signals — like RSI bullish divergence and a potential MACD bullish crossover — can fuel sharp rebounds once overhead levels flip to support. Navigating this push-pull requires precise level tracking and disciplined risk controls.

Key levels to watch

- $2.55 (20‑day EMA): First sign of renewed short-term strength if reclaimed and held. - $2.60 (200‑day SMA): Reclaim/hold to validate a higher-probability bullish reversal attempt. - $2.74–$2.80: Resistance band; clearing it opens room for momentum continuation. - $2.94 (100‑day SMA): A decisive break suggests the downtrend is likely over.

Actionable trading plan

• Breakout‑retest setup: Look for a close back above $2.60, then a retest that holds as support. Consider entries on strength with tight invalidation below the retest low.
• Range-to-break approach: If price oscillates between $2.55–$2.80, trade the range edges only with clear signals; avoid chasing mid-range.
• Confirmation add-on: Add on a clean break and hold above $2.80, targeting the $2.94 area, if momentum and volume expand.
• Risk management: Use staged position sizing; place stops below reclaimed levels (e.g., under $2.55 or the retest low); avoid oversized exposure during whale activity.
• On-chain vigilance: Set alerts for large XRP outbound transfers from known whale addresses; fading strength into whale outflows is high risk.

Risks and invalidations

Failure to reclaim and hold $2.55–$2.60 keeps bears in control and raises the probability of a deeper test toward prior demand zones. Persistent whale selling, regulatory headlines, or broad crypto risk-off can invalidate long setups. Watch for low-liquidity wicks around news and manage orders accordingly.

The bottom line

XRP is at a decision point: reclaiming $2.55–$2.60 could ignite a rebound toward $2.74–$2.80 and possibly $2.94, while failure keeps the trend vulnerable. Track whale flows, respect the levels, and let confirmation — not hope — drive entries.

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