Traders are whispering the same number: 37,000. After a choppy October, Bitcoin has slipped beneath the cost basis of short-term holders — a classic setup where pressure often migrates to long-term holders and price probes their realized price area. That “stress zone” historically invites absorption and sets the next trend leg. The next few sessions could decide whether we get a swift flush into the high-30Ks or a sharp reclaim that catches shorts offside.

What’s Driving The Pullback

Macro is back in the driver’s seat. Headlines around banking stress and rate uncertainty weighed on risk assets, with equities and crypto selling in tandem. On-chain, Bitcoin falling below the average purchase price of short‑term holders (STH) increases the odds of a move toward the long‑term holder (LTH) realized price — widely watched near the $37K zone. That area often acts as an absorption band where patient buyers step in.

The Levels That Matter

Think in terms of control zones, not perfect lines. STH realized price acts as a pivot: below it, sellers have momentum; reclaiming it often signals trend repair. The LTH zone around 37K is where supply historically tightens. Between these, liquidity tends to pool around recent swing lows and prior consolidation shelves — expect wicks.

• STH RP reclaim: Momentum check. Sustained closes back above suggest sellers are exhausted.
• 37K “stress zone”: Watch for long wicks, rising spot bid, and funding turning negative — signs of absorption.
• Liquidity pockets: Prior lows/highs from the last leg up are magnet levels for stop runs.

Actionable Trade Plans

• Scenario 1 — Flush then bounce: Stagger entries in the high-30Ks down toward mid-30Ks. Look for negative funding, a sharp open‑interest reset, and spot leading perps before stepping in. Invalidate if daily closes establish below your lower band — reduce risk, wait for structure.
• Scenario 2 — Reclaim and go: If price reclaims the STH pivot and retests it as support with rising spot volume, consider a momentum long. Place stops just below the reclaimed level to keep risk tight.
• Hedge tactically: If long spot, consider small short‑perp hedges or protective puts into key data/earnings. Remove hedges on confirmed reclaim signals.
• Risk first: Predefine position size (e.g., 0.5–1.0% account risk per idea), use hard invalidations, and avoid adding to losers.

On Remittix And Payments Tokens

The article contrasts Bitcoin’s store‑of‑value role with Remittix’s payments pitch. Even with audits/KYC, presales and pre‑launch tokens carry liquidity, vesting, and listing risks. Treat such exposure as high‑beta satellite risk, size small, and verify tokenomics, unlock schedules, and exchange readiness independently. Audits reduce some risks but do not eliminate them.

Key Signals To Monitor This Week

• Macro: Bond yields, banking headlines, and risk‑on/off in equities.
• On‑chain bands: STH/LTH realized price relationship; watch for reclaim or tag of the LTH zone.
• Derivatives: Funding turning negative, basis compression, and open‑interest flushes preceding reversals.
• Flow: Spot vs perp leadership, stablecoin net inflows/outflows, BTC dominance at key inflection points.
• Liquidity map: Prior swing lows/highs where stops likely rest.

Bottom Line

Until STH bands are reclaimed, the path of least resistance leans toward a 37K test — a spot where long‑term buyers often reassert control. Plan both scenarios, let the market confirm with flows and structure, and keep risk small until the tape proves strength.

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