Traders just watched over $6B in Bitcoin and Ethereum options vanish at expiry—and the market didn’t breathe a sigh of relief. Instead, it tensed. With **record open interest** concentrated on major venues and notable flows into **$100,000 BTC puts**, whales and pros shifted into **defensive hedges**, signaling that the next move could hinge on how dealers re-hedge and where spot gets pinned. If you’re not reading these flows, you’re trading blind.

What Just Happened

Over $6B in BTC and ETH options expired on October 24, 2025. Deribit reportedly sat on a **record ~$50B open interest** into the event, amplifying the potential for **post-expiry positioning swings**. Large traders rotated into **downside protection**, with attention on far-out **$100K BTC puts**—a tell that sentiment skewed **cautious** despite headline strength.

Why This Matters to Traders

Options expiries can reshape the **short-term order book**, creating: - **Pin risk** near key strikes as gamma hedging gravitates spot to “max-pain” zones. - **Volatility pockets** once dealer hedges roll off and books reset. - **Skew shifts** (puts vs. calls) that broadcast positioning and **tail-risk pricing**.

When expiries are large, the **microstructure** often decides the next 24–72 hours: either a **vol crush** and drift if spot remains trapped, or a **range break** if hedging flows flip direction and accelerate momentum.

The Setup Right Now

- Whales emphasized **downside hedges**, reflecting concern for **near-term instability** in BTC and ETH. - Elevated open interest into expiry means **post-expiry rebalancing** could move price more than usual. - If implied volatility (IV) was bid into expiry, watch for a **post-event IV normalization**—a potential edge for **vol sellers** if realized vol stays muted.

Actionable Playbook

• Map key strikes and max-pain: Identify clusters around recent spot levels. Expect choppiness near those zones as hedging flows rebalance.
• Watch IV and skew: If IV deflates faster than realized vol, consider short-vol structures (e.g., call spreads, calendars). If skew steepens to puts, cheap convexity may appear in debit put spreads.
• Time the post-expiry window: The first 24–48 hours often set direction. Let the market show its hand before chasing breakouts.
• Use defined-risk setups: Favor spreads over naked options. For spot, pair entries with tight invalidation under recent gamma levels.
• Monitor Deribit OI and dealer gamma: A flip from short to long gamma (or vice versa) can change whether dips/rips are faded or fueled.

Risk Signals to Watch

• Funding and basis: A sudden surge in positive funding with rising price can precede **long squeezes**; negative funding in drops can precede **short squeezes**.
• Order-book liquidity: Thin books after expiry magnify moves—use smaller size and staggered entries.
• Macro catalysts: US data, policy headlines, or ETF flows can overwhelm microstructure—keep a news feed live.

Bottom Line

Big expiries reset the chessboard. With whales leaning defensive and a record **OI backdrop**, expect **two-way volatility** and respect levels where dealers’ hedges matter. One practical edge now: let volatility and skew guide your strategy selection—trade structures, not opinions.

If you don't want to miss any crypto news, follow my account on X.