Bitcoin’s next big move may start with discomfort: multiple respected analysts warn of a potential “final flush” toward the $104,000 area—right into the long-term 50-week SMA—before a powerful trend restart. With leverage still elevated and a thick liquidity cluster below spot, the market path of maximum frustration could be a swift stop-sweep lower followed by a sharp reversal. Here’s the playbook to avoid getting trapped on the wrong side.

Market Setup at a Glance

Bitcoin is consolidating near the $108,000 support-turned-resistance after an intraday spike to $113,000 faded quickly. Analysts highlight the 50-week SMA near $102,500–$104,000 as the long-term trend anchor that has repeatedly launched rebounds this cycle. The 200-day EMA also remains a key dynamic support zone. Previous tags of this higher-timeframe support (Aug 2024 and Apr 2025) coincided with washed-out sentiment and strong recoveries. Translation: the next leg up may begin only after the market clears out late leverage below.

Why This Matters

- A controlled dip into $104K would reset excessive leverage, improve trend health, and potentially deliver higher-quality entries for swing longs. - A failure to hold the 50-week SMA would shift risk toward a deeper, time-based correction. Positioning around these levels demands discipline, not bravado.

Levels to Watch

• $113,000: Intraday supply; a clean daily close above signals momentum returning.
• $108,000: Key S/R pivot; reclaiming and holding it after a flush is constructive.
• $104,000–$102,500: Liquidity pocket and 50-week SMA zone; high-probability reaction area.
• 200-day EMA: Cycle trend guide; sustained loss for more than a few weeks would weaken the bull case.

One Actionable Takeaway

Trade the reclaim, not the knife: let price sweep into $104K ±, then look for a decisive reclaim and hold of $108K (plus rising spot-led momentum) to take longs with tight invalidation below the sweep low.

Risk Controls

• Use laddered bids near the 50-week SMA—avoid all-in entries; size for volatility.
• If the weekly close sits decisively below the 50-week SMA and 200-day EMA, reduce risk—no hero trades.
• Prefer spot or low-leverage exposure; consider protective puts or small hedge shorts into weakness.
• Set alerts at $104K and $108K to execute the plan mechanically.

Confirmation Signals Worth Watching

• Funding flipping negative with open interest resetting into the dip.
• Spot > perp led bounce and improving order book bids near the SMA.
• High-timeframe bullish divergences and strong close back above $108K.

Bottom Line

The market may need a final purge into the 50-week SMA before the bull trend resumes. Plan for the sweep, then execute on the reclaim. Patience and precise triggers will beat impulse every time.

If you don't want to miss any crypto news, follow my account on X.