Bitcoin looks ready to rip higher, but the tape is fighting a macro undertow: renewed US–China tariff tensions, a record US government shutdown, and futures traders leaning short. Under the surface, though, US spot demand is quietly accumulating. With ETF inflows and a positive Coinbase Premium trending up since the Oct. 10 flush to ~$107,000, the stage is set for a decisive move as next week’s CPI, Fed path, and potential TACO (100% tariffs) headlines hit.

What’s Moving Bitcoin Right Now

Data shows a clear split: US spot is buying while Binance perps are selling. Spot cumulative volume delta is positive, ETF net flows are rising, and open interest plus funding reflect aggressive shorting on perps. That divergence often resolves in a sharp move when a catalyst lands.

On-chain and derivatives heatmaps flag longs vulnerable at $106,300–$104,000, while shorts risk a squeeze if price runs to ~$115,000. The $107,000–$108,000 zone continues to attract spot demand.

Why It Matters for Traders

- The sell pressure is largely leverage-led, not spot-driven. If macro headlines stabilize or improve, shorts can become fuel. - Event density next week (CPI, possible government reopening, Fed cuts path) raises volatility odds. Expect fast whipsaws and forced liquidations. - As noted by market pros, the 10/10 washout cleared substantial leverage—creating room for an asymmetric move if flows turn.

Key Levels and Setups to Watch

• Support/long-liq magnets: $106,300 → $104,000. If tagged on a spike, watch for absorption and a fast reclaim for a reversal setup.
• Spot buy zone: $107,000–$108,000 has shown demand. Lose and hold below $106,300 increases downside risk.
• Short-liq target: ~$115,000. Reclaim and hold above $111,000–$112,000 with rising spot CVD could open a squeeze into this area.
• Invalidation: For longs, a 4h close below $104,000. For shorts, a 4h close above $115,000 with funding normalizing.

How to Navigate the Week Ahead

• Size down leverage into CPI and headline risk; trade the reaction, not the prediction.
• Track ETF net flows at the US open and the Coinbase Premium. Persistent positive prints favor spot-led bounces.
• Watch the perps delta and funding. If shorts keep piling in while price holds $107k–$108k, the path of pain is higher.
• Use bracket orders near $106.3k/$104k for potential wick-reversal entries and trail stops quickly.
• Consider defined-risk options: call spreads (112k→115k) for squeeze scenarios; put spreads (106k→104k) to express downside into long-liq clusters.

Bottom Line

Bitcoin still “wants up,” but macro turbulence is capping momentum. Respect both tails: downside probes into $106.3k–$104k can be bear traps, while a spot-led reclaim above $111k–$112k threatens a short squeeze toward $115k. Let flows and levels confirm your bias, and keep risk tight around event catalysts.

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