Bitcoin is coiled near $113,000 as the clock ticks toward the FOMC decision—exactly the kind of macro inflection where liquidity thins, volatility spikes, and a single line from Chair Powell can reroute trend momentum. With derivatives showing fresh optimism and spot buyers defending the $112K area, traders face a classic question: is this a routine pre-FOMC shakeout or the ignition point for the next leg higher?

What’s happening now

Bitcoin is holding steady near $113,000 ahead of the FOMC, echoing a recurring pattern: mild correction into the event, followed by directional expansion. Analysts like Michael van de Poppe and Javon Marks frame current price action as a standard reset rather than structural weakness. Even a rising wedge—typically bearish—has historically delivered bullish outcomes for BTC when macro liquidity turns supportive.

Why this matters to traders

FOMC communications directly influence liquidity, risk appetite, and the dollar. A dovish tilt (softer guidance, hints at cuts, or balance-sheet leniency) often boosts crypto beta, while a hawkish surprise can trigger a fast risk-off flush. With derivatives funding turning positive and open interest rebuilt after recent resets, positioning is primed for a move—both the opportunity and the risk are elevated.

Derivatives say “optimism”—here’s the catch

Positive funding and stabilized basis suggest traders are leaning long, but not at extremes. That means upside can accelerate on a dovish read—yet crowded longs are vulnerable to a stop-run if Powell leans hawkish. Expect the first impulse move to be fast and possibly deceptive; the second move often sets the day’s trend.

Key levels and scenarios

• Support: $112K–$112.5K (spot defense zone highlighted by analysts). Loss turns the move into a deeper liquidity sweep.
• Resistance: Prior local highs and wedge tops above $113K–$115K. Acceptance above = trend continuation.
• Dovish FOMC: Break-and-hold above resistance with rising spot volume; altcoins likely follow.
• Hawkish FOMC: Quick wick below $112K to run stops, then either reclaim (bullish trap flush) or continuation lower if volume confirms.

Actionable trade setup

• Plan both paths: Pre-define entries for breakout acceptance above resistance and for a liquidity sweep reclaim below $112K.
• Wait for confirmation: Prioritize spot-led moves, rising cumulative volume, and stable-to-improving funding on breaks.
• Use time filters: Let the first 15–30 minutes of post-FOMC volatility settle before adding size.
• Track cross-asset tells: A falling DXY and easing yields strengthen the crypto bull case.

Risk management checklist

• Position sizing: Cut size by 25–50% around the announcement to reduce tail-risk exposure.
• Stops and invalidations: Place hard stops beyond obvious liquidity pools; avoid placing stops at round numbers.
• Derivatives hygiene: Monitor funding spikes and open-interest surges—if they explode without spot follow-through, fade momentum.
• Execution discipline: No chasing after the first impulse; wait for retests or structure confirmation.

Bottom line

The setup is constructive but binary: with liquidity thin and positioning cautiously bullish, Powell’s tone likely decides whether Bitcoin converts a routine pre-FOMC reset into a breakout. Have both scenarios scripted, execute only on confirmation, and let the market pay you for patience—not for guessing.

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