A sharp liquidity sweep sent Bitcoin briefly under the $107,000 mark, only to snap back into its tight range as traders brace for the next volatility catalyst: the CPI print. With BTC grinding between roughly $102,000–$115,000 and momentum indicators neutral, the market is asking a simple question with high-stakes implications: is this wick a trap for late shorts—or the market whispering that bigger moves are ahead?

What just happened

BTC remains resilient despite a downside wick below $107K, holding a multi-week range. The simple moving averages point to stability, while a non-overbought RSI suggests room for expansion. If momentum returns, bulls have line-of-sight to $122,000 (nearest resistance) and potentially $134,000 (secondary resistance) if breakout conditions persist.

Why this matters before CPI

CPI typically resets risk appetite: - A hotter print can lift yields and the dollar, pressuring risk assets and capping BTC rallies. - An inline print can extend range-bound chop and favor mean-reversion strategies. - A cooler print can reignite risk-on flows, supporting a push toward resistance levels.

In short, CPI can decide whether BTC extends toward $122K–$134K or retests the lower band of its range.

Key levels to watch

• Support: $105K–$107K (wick zone), $102K (range support), psychological $100K
• Resistance: $115K (range high), $122K (R1), $134K (R2)
• Invalidation: Daily close below $102K weakens the bull case; strong close above $115K bolsters it

Actionable setups

• Breakout-retest: Wait for a 4H or daily close above $115K, then look for a retest/hold to target $122K. Partial profits near first resistance; trail stops.
• Range trade: Fade extremes—buy near $102K–$105K, sell near $115K—only if CPI is inline and volatility contracts. Tight stops beyond range edges.
• Event hedge: Ahead of CPI, consider reducing leverage, setting protective stops, or hedging exposure. Expect wider spreads and slippage at release.
• Momentum extension: If $122K breaks on strong volume, momentum entries can target $128K–$134K with dynamic trailing stops.

Risk management in focus

Volatility clusters around data releases. Size positions conservatively, avoid over-leverage, and plan for rapid funding shifts on perpetuals. Use alerts at $102K, $115K, $122K, and $134K. If liquidity thins, prioritize limit orders and pre-defined exit rules.

Beyond BTC: watch ETH and BNB

ETH and BNB often mirror BTC’s direction around macro prints. Track BTC dominance: rising dominance favors BTC-led moves; falling dominance can signal alt rotation if CPI is market-friendly. Relative strength on strong BTC days can reveal early leaders.

Bottom line

BTC’s wick below $107K is a reminder that liquidity hunts precede big moves. The path into and out of CPI is likely binary: acceptance above $115K opens $122K, while rejection increases the odds of a $102K–$105K retest. Define your levels, plan your entries, and let risk controls do the heavy lifting.

If you don't want to miss any crypto news, follow my account on X.