Bitcoin is behaving like a just-listed stock caught in its post-IPO hangover: supply is rotating, sentiment is uneasy, and price is stuck in a tight range. Veteran macro analyst Jordi Visser says **dormant “OG” coins are quietly moving**, **fresh buyers are accumulating dips**, and ownership is **distributing** from early believers to longer-term holders—explaining why Bitcoin can hold its range even as traditional risk assets rally and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits in **fear**.

What’s actually happening

Bitcoin has chopped between roughly $106,786 and $115,957 over the last week. According to Visser, this looks like the classic **post-IPO distribution**: early holders reduce exposure into strength, while new, patient buyers step in over time. The result is a **sideways grind**—dips get bought, but rallies fade as supply refreshes. Meanwhile, fundamentals like continuing ETF approvals, **all-time-high hashrate**, and rising **stablecoin** adoption signal that structural demand remains intact.

Why this matters to traders

In an IPO-like phase, there’s a **supply overhang** from early holders that can mute upside and create **choppy ranges**. That calls for precision over bravado: - Expect **frustrating consolidations** and **fake breakouts**. - Trend-following signals degrade; mean-reversion signals improve. - As distribution completes, ownership fragments, and **volatility can compress**—often a precursor to a cleaner, sustained move.

Data and flows worth watching

• Old coin activity: Spent Output Age Bands, dormancy metrics—rising spending of older coins confirms rotation.
• ETF net flows: Consistent inflows support bid; outflows amplify supply pressure.
• Exchange reserves: Falling reserves suggest accumulation; rising reserves flag potential sell pressure.
• SOPR/realized profit: Profit-taking spikes often cap rallies during distribution.
• Hashrate and fees: Strength underscores network health; watch for divergence with price.
• Stablecoin net issuance: More dry powder typically supports risk-taking.
• Fear & Greed + funding/basis: Fear with muted funding can be favorable for contrarian spot entries.
• Realized vs. implied vol: Compression precedes expansion—time entries around vol regime shifts.

An actionable game plan

• Trade the range: Consider scaling buys near the lower bound and trimming toward the upper bound; keep tight, predefined stops.
• Staggered entries (DCA): Accumulate on red days/dips rather than chasing green candles.
• Harvest time decay: In low-volatility chop, options sellers may use covered calls or cash-secured puts—size conservatively and respect risk.
• Reduce leverage: Distribution phases punish over-levered positions; preserve capital for the eventual breakout.
• Confirm the transition: Look for a weekly close outside the range on strong volume and supportive ETF inflows before flipping fully pro-trend.

Key risks to respect

Supply can accelerate if large legacy wallets distribute faster, macro shocks can break the range abruptly, and **head fakes** are common near range edges. Regulatory headlines and liquidity shifts can also distort signals—stay nimble and data-driven.

Bottom line

If Visser’s read is right, Bitcoin is mid-journey in an **unofficial “IPO”** that could span months. That means **patience and process**: trade the market you have—range-bound, rotation-heavy, data-led—while preparing for the moment distribution completes and a new volatility regime begins.

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