Bitcoin is coiling at around $111,000 just days before the FOMC decision, with cooling CPI at 3% and a striking 98.3% probability of a Fed rate cut fueling speculation that BTC could sprint toward $120,000–$130,000. Add in fresh institutional demand—BlackRock reportedly bought $32.7 million in BTC—and you have the recipe for a high-volatility week where disciplined traders may find asymmetric opportunities. But with price compressing near key resistance and a still-neutral momentum backdrop, the difference between catching the move and getting trapped will be execution.

What’s Happening Now

Bitcoin traded near $111,301 (+1% daily) after pushing above $110,000 earlier this week, consolidating beneath resistance at $111,000–$112,000. A short-term breakout on the 1-hour chart hints at a bullish impulse targeting $112,000–$113,000 first, with larger objectives at $115,000 and the psychological $120,000. Ethereum hovers near $3,900 with mixed performance across majors—typical of pre-FOMC positioning. Meanwhile, BlackRock’s additional $32.7M BTC purchase reinforces ongoing institutional interest.

Why This Matters to Traders

A rate cut typically lowers discount rates, boosts liquidity, and can favor risk assets. If the Fed delivers—or even guides dovishly—BTC could extend toward $120k+. But a hawkish tone or “cut with caution” messaging could spark a shakeout first. Expect volatility clusters around the decision and press conference; wick traps are common.

Key Levels and Indicators

The 4-hour MACD shows the MACD line above the signal line, supporting bullish momentum, while RSI ~60 remains neutral—room to run without immediate overbought stress. - Immediate support: $110,000 - Deeper support: $104,000 - Near-term resistance: $112,000 - Intermediate target: $115,000 - Psychological level: $120,000

Action Plan for the Week

• Set alerts: $110,000, $112,000, $115,000, and $120,000 to react, not chase.
• Trade the breakout or the rejection: Confirm 4H close above $112k for momentum entries; if rejected, look for mean-reversion into $110k.
• Protect risk: Keep position sizes modest into FOMC; use hard stops below $110k or wider risk below $104k if swing trading.
• Time the catalyst: Avoid entering just minutes before the decision; let the first impulse and retrace reveal direction.
• Optional hedges: For derivatives users, pre-event straddles/strangles can monetize volatility—mind IV crush post-event.

Risks and Invalidation

A hawkish cut or no cut, soft liquidity, or false breakout wicks above $112k that close back inside range would weaken the bull case. Lose $110k with momentum and the path opens toward $104k. Also watch funding/futures basis; if they spike while spot lags, euphoria risk rises.

Bottom Line

The setup is constructive but not confirmed: traders should let the Fed be the trigger and focus on $112k as the pivot. One clear, actionable takeaway: trade the post-FOMC reaction, not the prediction—confirmation above $112k favors a drive to $115k and potentially $120k; failure there keeps BTC range-bound with downside probes.

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