Bitcoin just slipped under a critical threshold, and the market’s next move could be sharper than most expect. Bitfinex’s latest Alpha report flags a potential cyclical floor around $93k–$95k if $100k gives way — yet the same zone may prime a Q4 rebound. If the floor is lower than your model, are your risk controls ready?

What’s happening now

BTC is down ~13% from its August ATH above $124k, having briefly tapped $107,480 and losing the psychological $110k area. On-chain, the Short-Term Holder Realized Price — the average cost basis of recent buyers — sits near $108,900. Price below this pivot historically pressures weak hands. Order-flow via Cumulative Volume Delta points to softer spot demand. Alts mirror the pullback, with one exception: ongoing institutional and treasury accumulation interest in ETH.

Why it matters to traders

Losing the $108,900 pivot can accelerate drawdowns until stronger, longer-horizon buyers step in. Bitfinex sees the highest-probability support in $93k–$95k, with a potential bounce window in September → Q4 as macro and structural catalysts line up: possible Fed rate cut, ongoing institutional flows (treasury strategies, ETF narratives), and improving regulatory clarity.

Key levels and triggers to watch

• $110,000: psychology and trend confidence.
• $108,900 (STH realized price): reclaim with rising spot CVD = constructive.
• $107,480: recent swing low; repeated failures invite downside.
• $100,000: round-number liquidity magnet; loss opens the $93k–$95k zone.
• $93k–$95k: proposed cyclical floor; watch for seller exhaustion and broad positive CVD.

Actionable playbook (risk-first)

• Plan entries as zones, not ticks: consider staggered bids near $100k, $97k, $95k only if tape weakens into them — avoid chasing rebounds without confirmation.
• Let the market prove strength: wait for a daily reclaim of $108,900 with improving CVD/spot volume before sizing up risk.
• Prefer spot or light leverage; hedge with protective puts or collars into CPI/FOMC headlines.
• Use rule-based DCA and predefined invalidations; don’t widen stops after entry.
• Watch funding, basis, and BTC dominance: persistent negative funding + rising dominance often precede relief bounces.
• Monitor macro: a Fed cut this month could flip risk sentiment; mark the FOMC date on your calendar.

Altcoin read-through

Alts typically underperform during BTC drawdowns and early stabilizations. While institutional interest supports ETH, it’s not immune. A more durable alt window usually opens after BTC reclaims the STH cost basis and consolidates. Track ETH/BTC: a trend turn there often signals risk-on rotation.

The bottom line

The path of maximum pain may run through $100k and into $93k–$95k, but that same zone could fuel the next Q4 leg if macro and flows align. Execute a patient, rules-driven plan: let levels and order-flow confirm before you press risk.

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