Bitcoin’s sprint to record highs just snapped back to the reality of an 8–10% correction—but the data behind the move is anything but bearish panic. August has featured repeated $100M+ outflows from exchanges (including one day above $250M), while the largest $200M+ inflows clustered near local tops. With prior dips of over 20% in 2024–2025 failing to break the higher-timeframe uptrend, the battle around $110K could be a textbook test of whether smart money is accumulating or preparing for another shakeout.

What Just Happened

Bitcoin pulled back to roughly $110K, marking a modest drawdown compared to earlier 2024–2025 pullbacks that exceeded 20%. The trading range has tightened between $95K–$122K in recent weeks. Analyst IT Tech notes such corrections are routine within long-term cycles and do not, by themselves, invalidate the broader bullish structure.

On-chain flows add context: August saw persistent outflows (August 15–25), typically associated with longer-term storage and reduced sell pressure. By contrast, inflows spiked on August 5, 9, 13, and 22, with the largest above $200M on August 9—just ahead of a local top, a pattern often tied to short-term selling pressure.

Why It Matters for Traders

Persistent outflows can foreshadow supply squeezes, but price is still drifting lower—signaling a risk-off environment where bids step back and rallies are sold. Meanwhile, oversized inflows frequently precede near-term tops, offering a tactical signal to avoid chasing strength. Navigating this tape means aligning entries with netflow shifts and being disciplined around clearly defined levels.

Key Levels and On-Chain Signals to Watch

• Support: $110K first, then $108K. Acceptance below opens risk toward the $95K–$100K band.
• Resistance: $115K–$118K pivot; range highs at $122K–$125K.
• Netflows: Single-day inflows >$200M have aligned with local tops; sustained daily outflows >$100M–$250M support accumulation.
• Context: Prior >20% drawdowns did not break the higher-timeframe bullish structure—corrections remain part of the trend.

Actionable Playbook

• For momentum confirmation, look for a reclaim of $115K–$118K alongside declining inflows and steady outflows before considering risk-on exposure.
• For dip management, scale plans only if outflows persist and price holds above $108K; define invalidation tightly to avoid downside drift toward the $95K–$100K range.
• Avoid chasing strength when daily inflows exceed $200M; historically, that has coincided with near-term tops and increased pullback risk.
• Set alerts for $110K, $115K–$118K, and daily netflow thresholds to react, not predict.

Risk Scenarios

• Bearish: Fresh inflows >$200M while price stalls below $118K could trigger a liquidity sweep toward or below $108K.
• Bullish: Persistent outflows and a strong spot bid on a $118K reclaim increases odds of a retest of $122K–$125K.

Bottom Line

This 8–10% drawdown looks like classic cycle noise unless key supports fail. Let netflows guide your bias: sustained outflows plus a reclaim of $115K–$118K argues for constructive continuation, while outsized inflows into strength warn of another quick fade. Trade the signals, not the emotion.

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