Is Bitcoin’s next move a trap or a gift? With volatility spiking and sentiment wobbling, Standard Chartered’s digital assets team sees a near-term sub-$100K sweep as “almost inevitable” — but frames it as a final shakeout before a push toward $135,000 next quarter. If this is a classic consolidation flush, the coming dip could be less a collapse and more a strategic reset that rewards prepared traders.

What’s Happening: A Strategic Pullback, Not a Breakdown

Standard Chartered expects Bitcoin to test key floors as derivatives flows weaken and larger funds stay cautious. Recent slips below $110,000 and signs of elevated derivatives stress suggest a market entering digestion mode. The bank’s core view: a brief break under $100,000 could purge momentum longs, reset funding, and set up a cleaner advance toward $135,000 later in the quarter.

Why This Matters to Traders

Markets that grind higher often need to eject late leverage before making new highs. A quick undercut of $100K can: - Clear crowded long positioning. - Improve spot-led participation as prices look “cheap” to sidelined buyers. - Turn rising caution into a contrarian tailwind if long-term holder strength persists.

Translation: turbulence now can improve the quality of the next leg up.

Key Levels and Signals to Watch

• Price zones: Resistance near $110K; psychological support at $100K; watch for shallow wicks into the high $90Ks and swift reclaim.
• Derivatives: Funding flipping neutral/negative with falling open interest on down moves = healthy flush; avoid chasing if OI ramps on green candles.
• Spot vs. perps: Spot-led bounces and improving cumulative delta are constructive; perp-driven spikes without spot follow-through are fragile.
• Liquidity: Monitor order book depth around round numbers; thin books increase wick risk — size accordingly.

Action Plan: Trade the Dip With Rules

• Define invalidation: A decisive weekly close well below $100K with failed reclaim weakens the bullish reset thesis.
• Stagger entries: Use laddered bids just below $100K into the high $90Ks; avoid all-in fills.
• Favor spot or low leverage: Keep leverage tight; aim for asymmetric risk with clear stops.
• Hedge smartly: Short perps or protective puts can offset drawdowns while retaining upside exposure.
• Let price confirm: Look for a fast reclaim of $100K and weakening sell pressure before adding size.

Risks to Respect

Macro shocks and liquidity vacuums can turn a controlled flush into a deeper slide. A prolonged failure to reclaim $100K, rising funding on bounces, or increasing OI into resistance signal a lower-quality rally. Be ready to step aside if these conditions persist.

Bottom Line

A brief dip under $100K that quickly reclaims could be the cycle’s high-conviction entry before a run toward $135K. Treat the volatility as an opportunity — but only with predefined risk, staggered entries, and confirmation from spot flows and derivatives resets.

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