Traders are bracing for a potential final flush in Bitcoin toward the $104,000 liquidity pocket as sentiment frays and leverage remains elevated — a setup that previously preceded sharp reversals. With the 50-week SMA near $102,500 acting as long-term support and BTC consolidating below a key resistance-turned-support band around $108,000, the market is primed for a high-volatility move that could reset positioning before the next leg higher.

What’s happening now

Bitcoin has been stable over the last 24 hours near $108,000 after a quick spike to $113,000 and rejection back to $107,000. Analysts note a dense liquidity cluster at $104,000 and persistent leverage that may invite a stop-sweep lower. Historically, tags of the 50-week SMA (~$102,500) have sparked fast reversals — with prior tests in August 2024 and April 2025 followed by sharp recoveries. Meanwhile, the 200-day EMA has been a cycle-defining support that BTC hasn’t lost for more than a month at a time.

Why this matters to traders

If BTC dips into $102k–$104k, it could be a classic liquidity flush: weak hands stopped out, late shorts pile in, and strong hands position for upside. This type of move often creates asymmetric risk-to-reward entries for swing traders — but it can also punish overleveraged positions. On the flip side, reclaiming and holding $108k and then $113k would signal trend strength without a deeper reset.

Key levels and scenarios

- $113,000: Near-term resistance. A clean reclaim/hold opens momentum continuation. - $108,000: Former support now resistance; base-building here is constructive. - $104,000: Liquidity pocket where a final flush could land. - $102,500: 50-week SMA long-term support; tag often precedes strong reversals. - 200-day EMA: Cycle support; losing it for more than a month would challenge the bull thesis.

Actionable playbook

• Plan entries, don’t chase: Predefine bids in the $102k–$104k zone, leaving room for wick-throughs below the 50-week SMA.
• Use invalidations: Place stops beyond your thesis (e.g., below the weekly close level under the 50-week SMA), not at obvious liquidity.
• Reduce leverage: Keep size modest into event risk; focus on spot or low-leverage perps to survive volatility.
• Watch positioning data: Track funding, open interest, and liquidations; a major OI reset + negative funding into $102k–$104k improves bounce odds.
• Confirmation on reclaim: If price reclaims $108k with rising spot demand and falling funding, consider momentum add-ons toward $113k.
• Hedge smartly: Short-term hedges via perps/options into a flush can protect spot; unwind hedges on strong reclaim signals.

Risks to respect

• False breaks: Single-candle wicks can run stops before reversing; avoid tight stops at obvious levels.
• Macro headlines: Data releases and policy updates can amplify moves; volatility risk is elevated.
• Trend degradation: Multiple weekly closes below the 200-day EMA or prolonged loss of the 50-week SMA weakens the bull-case and warrants a reassessment.

Bottom line

The path of maximum pain may be a swift sweep to $104k — potentially into the $102.5k 50-week SMA — before a rebound. Let the market come to your levels, stay disciplined on invalidations, and be ready to pivot if BTC reclaims $108k and presses $113k. Patience and risk control are your edge in this phase.

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