XRP just survived a sharp intraday shakeout, bouncing off the critical $3.02 support after a failed breakout above $3.35. With price still trapped below the 100-hour SMA and momentum indicators softening, traders are now laser-focused on whether bulls can reclaim the $3.15 pivot—or whether a clean loss of $3.02 unlocks a deeper slide toward $3.00–$2.88. The next few candles are likely to set the tone for the week.

What’s Happening Now

XRP slipped over 6% from $3.35, breaking a bullish trend line near $3.28 and pressing below $3.25 and $3.15. The pair printed a low around $3.031 and is attempting a rebound into the 23.6% Fib of the $3.35 → $3.031 drop near $3.10. Price trades under the 100-hour SMA, with immediate resistance at $3.10 and a major decision point at $3.15 (≈ 38.2% Fib).

Why It Matters to Traders

This is a classic post-fakeout battleground: acceptance back above $3.15 would suggest the pullback is corrective, opening room to $3.20, $3.25, $3.265, and potentially $3.30. Failure to reclaim $3.15 keeps bears in control, with downside liquidity resting at $3.05, the crucial base at $3.02, then $3.00/$2.88.

Key Levels and Signals

• Support: $3.05 → $3.02 (critical) → $3.00 → $2.88
• Resistance: $3.10 → $3.15 (pivot) → $3.20 → $3.25 → $3.265 → $3.30
• Momentum: Hourly MACD fading in the bullish zone; RSI below 50 = weak momentum
• Trend Filter: Price below the 100-hour SMA = rallies face supply

Actionable Game Plan

• Breakout-Reclaim: Watch for a 1H close above $3.15 and a clean retest that holds as support. If confirmed, momentum targets sit at $3.20 and $3.25, with stretch into $3.265–$3.30.
• Range-Fade: If price stalls at $3.10–$3.15 and RSI stays sub-50, fading into resistance with tight risk above $3.15 can target $3.05/$3.02.
• Breakdown-Continuation: An hourly close below $3.02 signals acceptance into lower value—look for a retest rejection to target $3.00 then $2.88.
• Invalidation: For long attempts, an hourly close back below $3.10 after a breakout is a caution flag; below $3.02 invalidates bullish bias.

Risk Management First

• Position sizing matters: define max risk per trade before entry.
• Avoid chasing wicks around $3.15—wait for closes and retests.
• Correlations: BTC/ETH weakness can cap XRP bounces—track indices.
• Use alerts at $3.02 and $3.15 to avoid overtrading the chop.

Scenario Map (Next 24–48h)

• Bull Case: Reclaim and hold above $3.15 → grind to $3.20, $3.25, $3.265, with a shot at $3.30.
• Base Case: Chop between $3.05–$3.15 while momentum resets under the 100-hour SMA.
• Bear Case: Hourly close below $3.02 → continuation to $3.00 and liquidity sweep near $2.88.

Bottom Line

XRP is coiled between a hard floor at $3.02 and a credibility check at $3.15. Let the level confirm the narrative: above $3.15, trade the squeeze; below $3.02, respect momentum. Patience around these pivots will likely decide your edge this week.

If you don't want to miss any crypto news, follow my account on X.