Bitcoin’s first major stress test of this cycle is unfolding in real time: price has slipped below $110,000 after a sharp drawdown from the $124,000 peak, while on-chain buyers are confronting whales that just realized nearly $4B in profits in a single day. Is this a healthy reset that reloads momentum—or the start of a deeper structural pullback that traps late longs?

What’s Happening Now

Bitcoin is pressing the Short-Term Holder Realized Price (1–3 months)—a classic “first line of defense” that reflects the average cost basis of recent buyers. A hold here would signal resilient demand; a break often forces price discovery lower.

Below sits the Realized Value Price Model (mid) around $92k–$93k, historically a “last bastion” that has generated reflexive bounces when short‑term support fails. Losing this region risks extending the corrective phase.

Why It Matters to Traders

August 29 saw the largest realized profit spike since February (ex‑July 4’s outlier), driven by whales de‑risking into strength: - Holders with 10,000+ BTC booked about $2.17B. - 1,000–10,000 BTC cohorts realized ~$1.25B. - 100–1,000 BTC wallets realized ~$495M.

This rotation from strong to weaker hands raises fragility. Add context: over $150M in long liquidations on Binance, a fresh $2B USDT mint, and ~17,000 BTC outflows from Kraken—signals of shifting liquidity that can amplify volatility in both directions.

Key Levels to Watch

- Immediate: STH Realized Price (1–3m) near spot (~$108,559 at the time of writing). Holding suggests buyers absorbing supply; failure invites momentum selling. - Higher‑timeframe: $92k–$93k (Realized Value mid) as cycle‑relevant support. Reclaiming and holding above would stabilize the structure; losing it risks a longer corrective leg.

Actionable Playbook for Traders

• Define invalidation: If STH RP breaks on volume, tighten risk on longs; look for reclaim before re‑adding.
• Stagger bids: If price approaches $92k–$93k, scale rather than knife‑catch; wait for momentum or funding/OI reset to confirm.
• Track flows: Monitor exchange netflows and whale profit‑realization spikes; fading heavy profit spikes can be high‑risk until they cool.
• Mind liquidity: Big stablecoin mints and exchange outflows can shift liquidity pockets—avoid market orders in thin books; use limit/TWAP.
• Hedge smart: If net long, consider partial hedges via perps around breakdowns; unwind hedges on reclaim of key on‑chain levels.
• Execution discipline: Pre‑set alerts at the STH RP band and $92k–$93k; don’t chase first bounce without confirmation.

Bottom Line

This is a classic on‑chain clash: recent buyers at risk versus whales taking profits. Respect the levels, let the market show its hand at support, and keep risk mechanical—not narrative‑driven. If the first line holds, momentum can rebuild; if not, the deeper bid may sit closer to $92k–$93k.

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