Bitcoin is coiled at a critical level and the next move may be decided in minutes, not days. With the latest U.S. CPI print landing today and a Federal Reserve decision next week, traders are positioning for a fast break: a soft inflation read could vault price above $112K, while a hot surprise risks a slide toward $107K. Here’s the setup, the logic, and the levels that matter right now.

What’s happening now

Bitcoin trades near $110,479 after nearly six months locked in a $100K–$120K range. Momentum is neutral to constructive: the RSI ~43 signals room to run, and subdued volume hints at energy building into a breakout. Technicians are eyeing $112K as near-term resistance and $107K as key support, with the 150-day EMA underpinning bullish sentiment if price stays above it.

Why this matters to traders

Macro is back in the driver’s seat. A softer-than-expected CPI increases the odds of rate cuts, historically supportive for risk assets. As analyst Michael van de Poppe notes, Bitcoin is “nearing a big volatile move” with rates still around 4–4.5%—a shift lower could be the catalyst that ends the range. Conversely, a hotter CPI would likely lift yields and the dollar, pressuring BTC back toward support.

Actionable intraday levels

Several traders are watching these spots for precision entries and invalidations:

• Potential dip-buys around $110,200 and $109,700.
• Short-term invalidation if BTC loses $109,300.
• Range integrity holds while above $107K; a sustained break and hold above $112K opens a path toward the range highs near $120K.

Two scenarios to prepare for

• Soft CPI / Risk-On: Look for a clean break, retest, and hold above $112K. Momentum confirmation (rising RSI, volume expansion) improves the probability of continuation toward $115K–$120K.
• Hot CPI / Risk-Off: Expect rejection near resistance, liquidity sweeps below $110K, and tests of $109.7K or $107K. Breaks and closes below $109.3K argue for de-risking or tighter stops.

On-chain risk to respect

Analyst Ali Martinez notes BTC fell below the Short-Term Holder Realized Price, a pattern that has sometimes preceded deeper corrections. In extreme cases, price has gravitated toward the Long-Term Holder Realized Price (currently cited near $37,000) before recovering. This isn’t a base case—but it’s a reminder to size positions prudently around event risk.

Pre-CPI trader checklist

• Define your trigger and invalidation: above $112K for momentum continuation; below $109.3K reduce risk.
• Scale entries at $110.2K and $109.7K only with pre-set stops; avoid chasing wicks.
• Size down and tighten leverage—CPI whipsaws can be violent.
• Monitor yields (UST), DXY, and BTC volume on the breakout/retest for confirmation.
• Consider hedges into the print if you’re carrying directional exposure.

The bottom line

BTC’s next leg hinges on macro. A soft CPI plus supportive technicals (RSI ~43, 150-day EMA, $107K holding) favors a topside break through $112K. A hot CPI puts $110K–$107K back in play. Have your levels, plan, and risk controls set before the number hits—then let the market confirm the direction.

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