Six months of sideways at six figures has lulled Bitcoin into a false sense of calm—right as a potential policy shock brews. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe argues the $100K–$120K range is a compressed spring, with the next move likely unlocked by forthcoming CPI and FOMC decisions. Crucially, he frames BTC at $100K with 4–4.5% rates as potentially “cheaper” than 2021’s $69K at 0%, implying falling yields could unleash a powerful upside impulse. Here’s what traders need to know—and how to prepare with discipline, not FOMO.

What’s happening now

Bitcoin has chopped inside a $100K–$120K band for nearly half a year, compressing volatility. Van de Poppe expects direction to emerge around macro catalysts: inflation prints (CPI) and the Fed’s rate path (FOMC). As institutional participation and ETF flows stabilize, the market is coiled—but still data-dependent.

Why this matters to traders

Macro now anchors crypto. If policy shifts from restrictive to easing, broader liquidity can re-rate risk assets, with BTC historically responding first and strongest. A lower-rate backdrop versus 2021 suggests room for multiple expansion without the same speculative froth—yet the path is unlikely to be linear. Expect volatility spikes around data drops and algorithmic whipsaws.

Key levels and scenarios

• $120K: A decisive daily/weekly close above, with rising volume and strong spot/ETF bid, would confirm momentum. • $100K: Range floor and sentiment pivot; repeated tests increase breakdown risk. • Fail-break traps: First breaks post-data often wick and revert. Confirmation matters more than the first candle. • Macro context: Soft CPI + dovish FOMC favors upside; sticky inflation or hawkish tone revives chop or downside probes.

Actionable playbook into CPI/FOMC

• Pre-plan scenarios: Write if-then rules (e.g., “Weekly close > $120K with rising OBV → scale in 25%”). Remove in-the-moment guesswork.
• Size smaller pre-event: Keep leverage low; expand only on confirmed breakouts with volume and breadth.
• Use alerts, not impulses: Set price/volume alerts at $100.5K, $119.5K, and the prior day’s high/low to track structure shifts.
• Wait for confirmation: Prioritize higher-timeframe closes over 5-minute spikes. Fewer trades, higher quality.
• Hedge the edges: Consider protective puts or collars into the event if carrying spot; define max drawdown upfront.
• Watch macro tells: Track U.S. 2Y yield, DXY, and liquidity gauges around the print; crypto’s first move often mirrors them.

Risks to respect

• Data whipsaw: CPI revisions and Fed Q&A can flip narrative mid-session. • Liquidity gaps: Event windows can widen spreads and trigger stop cascades. • Leverage flush: Crowded positioning near round numbers magnifies moves. • False confidence: “Guaranteed breakout” thinking blinds traders to invalidation signals.

Bottom line

Van de Poppe’s message is simple: patience until the macro cards are dealt, then conviction on confirmation. A clean break above $120K opens the door to trend continuation, while the range persists until data says otherwise. Plan your triggers, size prudently, and let the market prove itself before you do.

If you don't want to miss any crypto news, follow my account on X.