Bitcoin’s daily chart is flashing a classic bear flag — and if it confirms, momentum could accelerate below six figures. Yet bulls still have multiple lines in the sand that can stop a deeper slide. The next 1–2 daily closes around $107,000–$108,600 will likely decide whether Bitcoin grinds higher or fast-tracks toward a retest of $100,000 and beyond.

What the charts are signaling

After bottoming near $103,530 on Oct. 11, BTC has clawed back in a rising parallel channel — the textbook structure of a bearish continuation flag. The flag’s support has been repeatedly tested around $107,000–$107,500. A daily close below that zone would validate the pattern and open a path to its measured move near $88,100.

Momentum isn’t helping the bulls: the daily RSI ≈ 42 favors further downside. On lower time frames, a similar four-hour setup projects toward $98,000, a potential area for a short-term bounce or reversal attempt.

Why this matters to traders

BTC is down roughly 13.6% from its all-time high above $126,000 and now sits below the short-term holder cost basis near $113,100 — historically a precursor to mid-term weakness as weaker hands capitulate. Glassnode’s Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model flags $108,600 (0.85 quantile) as a must-hold; failure often precedes deeper corrections toward the $97,500 area (0.75 quantile).

Trader Daan Crypto Trades highlights $111,000 as the near-term pivot: reclaiming and holding above it would shift bias back to the upside. Until then, $107,000 remains the critical support line.

Key levels to watch

• $113,100: Short-term holder cost basis; reclaim reduces downside pressure.
• $111,000: Short-term pivot; acceptance above opens room higher.
• $108,600: Glassnode 0.85 quantile; maintaining above avoids deeper sell-off.
• $107,000–$107,500: Flag support; daily close below = pattern validation.
• $100,000: Psychological magnet; watch for liquidity grabs.
• $98,000–$97,500: 4H target and 0.75 quantile; potential reaction zone.
• $88,100: Bear flag measured move if downside accelerates.

Actionable playbook

Consider planning for both confirmation and invalidation scenarios rather than predicting direction. For trend followers, a daily close below $107,000 confirms the bear flag; risk can be defined with tight invalidation on a swift reclaim back above $108,600–$109,000. For mean reversion traders, watch for a failed breakdown — a wick below $107,000 that reclaims $108,600 — as a potential squeeze setup toward $111,000 and $113,100.

Practical steps:

• Set alerts at $108,600, $107,000, and $111,000 to avoid chasing.
• Size positions for elevated volatility; widen stops only if your plan supports it.
• Track RSI momentum and four-hour structure to time entries with confirmation.
• Respect the $97,500–$98,000 zone for potential reaction; don’t assume it will hold.

Risk management first

A confirmed bear flag often travels quickly to its target, but failed breakdowns can be equally violent. Keep leverage modest, define invalidation before entry, and avoid averaging into losers. Above all, let the levels — not emotions — guide your next move.

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