Stablecoins just crossed a point of no return: the internet now moves in onchain dollars. A new 2025 report shows they’ve shifted from speculative sidecar to core payments rail, settling value at global scale. The headline figure is shocking: $46 trillion in annual stablecoin transactions, with $9 trillion after filtering automation—roughly half of Visa’s yearly throughput. Sub-cent fees and sub-second finality aren’t gimmicks anymore; they’re replacing legacy rails in the wild.

What’s new: stablecoins are now payment infrastructure

Once a crypto trading lubricant, stablecoins have become a live settlement layer for consumers and institutions. Merchants on PayPal, Shopify, and Stripe are already tapping faster settlement and lower costs. Ethereum and Tron handle about 64% of volume, while emerging chains chase cheaper, faster transfers—making the rails more resilient and scalable.

The numbers traders should pin to their screens

• Total stablecoin supply > $300B; USDT and USDC = 87% of supply.
• Adjusted volume in Sept 2025: $1.25T, decoupled from crypto trading activity.
• More than 1% of all U.S. dollars exist as tokenized stablecoins.
• Issuers hold > $150B in U.S. Treasuries—now the 17th-largest holder, ahead of several nations.
• ~99% of stablecoins are USD-denominated, reinforcing dollar dominance.
• Regulatory clarity is improving (e.g., U.S. GENIUS Act), with Circle’s public listing signaling institutional comfort.

Why this matters for markets

This isn’t just plumbing—it’s a new demand engine for U.S. Treasuries and a persistent driver of onchain activity. Rising stablecoin float historically precedes broader crypto liquidity. Chain-level fee accrual and settlement dominance (ETH, TRX, and fast L2s) can re-rate network tokens via sustained transaction revenue. A decoupled, payments-led flow also means stablecoin metrics become a better macro signal than crypto spot volumes for gauging risk-on/off cycles.

Opportunities: where the flows can become P&L

• Liquidity lead indicator: Track net stablecoin issuance (USDT vs. USDC) and 7–30D adjusted volumes. Sustained acceleration has preceded market-wide beta runs.
• Chain share rotation: Monitor the ETH/TRX settlement split and rising L2s. Rotation can front-run fee revenue and throughput re-pricing.
• Payments rails trade: Stable-swap AMMs and bridging protocols capturing cross-chain stablecoin flows may see fee spikes during corridor growth.
• Basis/yield plays: T-bill rates feed issuer income; watch for improved stablecoin yield products and funding spreads on exchanges during peak flow periods.
• USDT/USDC premium signals: Secondary market premiums/discounts can flag regional stress, bank partner disruptions, or regulatory moves—often tradeable before headlines.

Risks you must price

• Issuer and reserve risk: Transparency, custody, and duration management of T-bill portfolios; redemption frictions can trigger transient de-pegs.
• Regulatory shock: Blacklisting, KYC/AML tightening, or bank partner outages can disrupt corridors and liquidity.
• Chain execution risk: Congestion, outages, or exploits on dominant settlement chains can dislocate pricing and spreads.
• Concentration risk: Heavy reliance on USDT/USDC (87% share) amplifies single-issuer event risk.
• Geopolitical/FX pressure: Regional controls and capital restrictions can cause localized stablecoin stresses and premiums.

One actionable takeaway

Build a live dashboard that tracks: (1) net issuance by issuer, (2) chain settlement share (ETH/TRX/L2s), (3) 7–30D adjusted volume, and (4) USDT/USDC premium/discount across major venues. Use upside inflections as a greenlight for beta exposure and fee-capture plays; use negative divergences to scale back risk and tighten de-peg hedges. Operationally, diversify across multiple stablecoins and off-ramps to reduce single-point counterparty risk.

Bottom line

Stablecoins have achieved real product–market fit: instant, cheap, borderless dollars at scale. For traders, the new edge is reading stablecoin flow data as macro liquidity telemetry—and positioning early where those dollars settle and earn fees. If you don't want to miss any crypto news, follow my account on X.