Three forces are quietly aligning behind Bitcoin’s next big move: a surge in spot ETF demand, miners stepping back from selling, and a potential Federal Reserve rate cut with a 91% implied probability. With BTC holding above $115.9K and bulls eyeing $130K, the backdrop favors upside—so long as key supports and liquidity dynamics don’t flip.

ETF inflows signal an institutional bid

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs just logged net inflows of about 5,900 BTC, the strongest daily intake since mid-July. Historically, inflows expand during price strength and fade in drawdowns, making the flow trend a high-signal confirmation of market regime. The latest push also flipped weekly flows back to positive, hinting at renewed institutional participation.

Why it matters: persistent ETF inflows reduce available sell-side liquidity and reinforce uptrends. For traders, it’s not one day that counts—it’s whether inflows cluster for several sessions and push the weekly sum meaningfully positive.

Miners are selling less—supply pressure eases

On-chain data shows a downtrend in miner-to-exchange flows since early 2025. When miners send fewer coins to exchanges, immediate sell pressure declines. Pair this with BTC holding above $112K–$116K and the tape looks like steady accumulation rather than distribution. This tilt often supports breakouts and reduces the risk of sharp miner-led flushes.

Macro tailwind: Fed cut odds at 91%

Polymarket pricing implies a 91% chance of a 25 bps cut in September, with low odds of a larger move. Lower rates generally boost liquidity and risk appetite—positive for BTC beta. But remember the classic risk: a “buy the rumor, sell the news” reaction if the cut and guidance are fully priced in, or if the press conference leans hawkish.

Why this matters to traders

• Trend bias: constructive while BTC holds above $112K. Momentum unlocks a path toward $120K–$123K and the psychological $130K.
• Flow trigger: favor longs on 2–3 consecutive ETF inflow days and a rising weekly sum; de-risk if flows flip negative alongside stalling price.
• Miner watch: track the 7D average of miner-to-exchange flows. Spikes often precede pullbacks—tighten risk if they reappear.
• Event risk: the FOMC decision is volatility fuel. Avoid heavy leverage into the announcement; look for post-event trend continuation signals.
• Derivatives check: if perp funding and long skew stretch higher, expect squeezes. Consider staggered entries and partial profit-taking.
• Invalidation: a daily close below $112K weakens the setup—expect liquidity grabs lower before any recovery.

Risks and catalysts to track

A hawkish Fed tone, sudden ETF outflows, a reversal in miner behavior, or a stronger dollar could cap rallies. Conversely, sustained inflows, soft inflation prints, and firm spot demand would support a march toward $130K.

Bottom line

The tape is tilting bullish: ETFs are buying, miners are not selling, and macro liquidity may improve. The actionable edge is to trade with the trend while it respects $112K, validate with ETF flow persistence, and respect event risk around the Fed.

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