Bitcoin’s sprint to 114K looked unstoppable—until it wasn’t. Within hours, the move faded to 108K as leveraged longs got flushed and whales sent coins to exchanges. The rally had a macro tailwind from a new U.S.–Australia critical minerals pact, but market structure, not headlines, decided the outcome. For traders, this is a textbook reminder: when open interest spikes and spot supply rises into resistance, momentum can flip fast.

What just happened

Open interest in Bitcoin futures pushed above $32B with positive funding, signaling longs in control during the run-up. As price tagged 114K, exchange inflows rose—large wallets likely taking profit. The result was a clean rejection and a controlled pullback to 108K, not a panic crash. Meanwhile, the U.S.–Australia deal (~$8.5B) lifted global risk appetite, helping fuel the initial push—but liquidity dynamics ultimately capped it.

Why it matters to traders

Liquidity cycles still dominate crypto’s path. As Lyn Alden notes, market structure outranks narrative: leverage dictates how far moves extend and how sharp reversals can be. In a high-OI environment, wicks get longer, breakouts demand confirmation, and fading extremes can outperform chasing.

Key levels and signals

• Resistance: 114K (break and hold needed for 118K → 120K)
• Near-term pivot: 112K
• Support: 108.5K (20D MA), then 108K range floor
• Structure guardrail: 105K (loss opens 102K; sub-100K = sentiment deterioration)
• Momentum: RSI ~57, daily MACD still positive; requires volume to reclaim 114K

Actionable playbook (for nimble traders)

• Range trade: Buy strength off 108–108.5K with tight invalidation below; fade into 112–114K until a confirmed breakout.
• Breakout plan: Wait for a 4H/D close above 114K with rising spot volume and cooling funding before targeting 118–120K.
• Risk controls: Use smaller size/low leverage while OI is elevated; avoid chasing green candles near resistance.
• Flow tells: Track exchange netflows and perp funding; a funding reset and net outflows support upside attempts.
• Alerts: Set pings at 108.5K, 114K, and 105K to react, not predict.

Risks and invalidation

A decisive break below 105K weakens higher-timeframe structure; <100K would confirm a broader sentiment shift. Elevated leverage increases liquidation cascades both ways. Macro catalysts can spark moves, but confirmation must come from spot volume and flow.

Bottom line

The 114K rejection doesn’t end the bull case—yet. Above 105K, structure remains constructive, but the market must prove it with a high-volume reclaim of 114K. Until then, respect the range, trade the levels, and let liquidity—not headlines—set your bias.

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