Bitcoin just flipped the script above $111K, reclaiming the 20-day EMA and completing an inverted head-and-shoulders on the 4H — a pattern bulls haven’t seen confirm cleanly in days. With price near $112,012, volume running ~1.7× the 7-day average, and RSI firming across timeframes, BTC now sits at an inflection: a push through the $114K–$116K supply band could turn this bounce into a structured continuation.

What Just Happened

The 4H inverted H&S cleared its neckline around $111.2K, with RSI near 60 (1H), 59 (4H), and turning positive on the 1D. The MACD histogram is expanding upward, signaling fresh dip demand. Meanwhile, ATR is stabilizing around ~1,035, pointing to controlled volatility and a sustainable advance, not a blow-off spike. The backdrop: rising participation consistent with potential institutional flows.

Why This Matters to Traders

Momentum is aligned across 1H/4H/1D and meets all of Isaiah’s gates — price > EMA20, RSI > 52, and volume confirmation — classifying BTC as Active Bullish in the High Sharpe Tier framework. If BTC posts a daily close above $114K, the odds favor a continuation leg into $116K–$117K. With volatility contained, risk can be sized more precisely.

Key Levels to Watch

• Support: $110.3K (near-term), $108.6K, $106.5K
• Neckline: $111.2K — watch for a retest/hold as validation
• Resistance: $113.2K, $114.5K, $116.8K
• Confirmation: Daily close > $114K unlocks $116K–$117K
• Volatility lens: ATR ~1,035 suggests ~$1K typical swing range

Actionable Game Plan

• Breakout continuation: Consider entries on a daily close > $114K; initial targets $116K–$117K. Invalidation: daily close back below $114K or loss of the 20D EMA.
• Pullback buy: Scale into $111.2K (neckline) to $110.3K with tight risk below $108.6K. Take partials at $113.2K/$114.5K; trail toward $116.8K.
• Tactical fade (advanced): If momentum stalls near $116K–$116.8K with RSI divergence and volume fade, counter-trend shorts with strict stops > $117.2K and quick targets back to $114.5K/$113.2K.
• Risk sizing: Calibrate stops to volatility; many traders anchor to ~0.8–1.2× ATR for intraday swing risk. Keep position risk modest.
• Signal checks: Maintain RSI > 52, price > EMA20, and volume near or above the 7-day average to validate trend health.

What Would Invalidate the Bull Setup

A sustained break below $110.3K shifts momentum back to neutral; a loss of $108.6K jeopardizes the H&S breakout and opens a path toward $106.5K. Watch for rising price on falling volume and fading RSI — classic signs of a weak breakout.

Bottom Line

BTC has reclaimed momentum with structure, liquidity, and controlled volatility on its side. The trade is straightforward: respect the neckline, track the $114K daily close for confirmation, and work the laddered levels. Let the data lead — not the narrative.

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