When gold rips to all-time highs, bonds pay you next to nothing, and the dollar slips, one asset is refusing to blink: Bitcoin. Price is coiling in a tight range as global markets lurch to extremes, creating a pressure cooker where the next decisive move could be fast, violent, and highly tradable. Traders who map the levels now will be ready when compression turns into expansion.

What’s Actually Happening

Traditional assets look stretched: a weakening USD, equities at lofty valuations, and bonds with low or negative real yields. That trifecta pushes capital toward scarce, liquid alternatives. Bitcoin’s finite supply, global liquidity, and neutral, decentralized design make it a standout. On-chain data points to steady long-term accumulation, while rising BTC dominance signals rotation away from higher-risk altcoins into Bitcoin’s relative safety.

The Setup on the Chart

BTC is hovering near $109,500, compressing inside an ascending wedge—a pattern that often resolves with sharp moves once support or resistance breaks. Key levels:

• Immediate resistance: $112,000–$114,000 (a sustained reclaim here opens the door higher)
• Major resistance: $123,400
• Near-term support: $106,500–$107,000
• Critical support: $100,600 (a daily/weekly close below risks a deeper flush before recovery)

Momentum is neutral with RSI ~50.7 and modest inflows via CMF ~0.03, underscoring indecision before a larger move.

Why This Matters to Traders

Macro tailwinds—weak dollar, yield-starved bonds, and gold strength—stack the odds in favor of hard assets. Meanwhile, wedge compression suggests imminent volatility. In other words: conditions are ripe for a trend-defining breakout or a trend-cleaning shakeout. Your edge is preparation, not prediction.

Actionable Game Plan

• Breakout confirmation: Look for a strong 4H/12H close and hold above $114,000 with rising volume/CMF. If confirmed, targets sit at $120,000 and the $123,400 supply zone. Consider partial profits into those levels and trail stops below the reclaim.
• Range strategy: If price continues to coil, fade extremes—buy the $106.5k–$107k support with tight invalidation below $106k, and sell strength into $112k–$114k. Keep size small; the wedge can break abruptly.
• Breakdown defense: A daily/weekly close below $100,600 signals caution. Step back, wait for a liquidity sweep and reclaim before re-entering. Avoid averaging down blindly during a cascade.
• Macro confirms: Sustained USD weakness, continued BTC dominance rise, and evidence of institutional accumulation support the bullish case. If these flip, reduce risk.
• Risk controls: Cap position risk at 1–2% per trade, use hard stops, and avoid overleverage into the wedge apex. Consider hedges (protective puts or small perp shorts) against spot holdings.

Key Risks to Respect

Expect fakeouts around $114k and near $100k as liquidity hunts both sides. Macro headlines—policy surprises, geopolitical shocks, or sudden USD strength—can invert the setup quickly. Thin weekend books and elevated open interest increase squeeze risk.

Bottom Line

Bitcoin remains the high-conviction, liquid hedge in a shaky macro tape. Above $114k, the path of least resistance favors $120k–$123.4k. Lose $100.6k with conviction, and patience becomes the winning trade. Let levels—not emotions—dictate your next move.

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