Bitcoin just ripped through the weekend lull and vaulted above $113,000, catching late-Sunday traders off guard as a surprise macro headline hit the tape: US Treasury Secretary Bessent signaled China is “ready” to strike a trade deal that could remove the 100% tariff the President slated for November 1. With traditional markets closed, crypto became the first risk asset to price in a potential de-escalation—sending BTC to a multi-day high near $113,500 after last week’s “tariff shock” low around $101,000.

What just happened

According to a Reuters report and commentary amplified by The Kobeissi Letter, US and Chinese delegations reached a preliminary consensus, with a leaders’ meeting expected this week in Europe. Traders quickly repriced event risk: if the tariff threat is rolled back, global growth and risk sentiment improve—fuel for a swift crypto move when liquidity is thin.

Why this matters to traders

A credible pathway to removing a sweeping tariff is a classic risk-on impulse. It can: - Ease supply-chain fears, support earnings expectations, and weaken safe-haven bids. - Pressure the US dollar and yields lower at the margin—historically supportive for BTC. - Create weekend dislocations as crypto leads the pricing before equities, FX, and rates open.

But this is a headline-driven, still-unconfirmed narrative. Thin weekend order books amplify both upside and reversals.

Key BTC levels in focus

• Resistance: $113.5K (session high), then $115K (psychological/round number).
• Support: $112K–$111.5K (breakout area), $110K (round number), deeper $105K–$101K (October 10 capitulation zone).

Actionable setups to consider

• Breakout-continuation: If price closes the 1H above $113.5K with rising spot volume and controlled funding, a push toward $115K+ is in play. Invalidate on a decisive move back below $112K.
• Fade a failed breakout: Look for a wick above $113.5K followed by momentum rollover and negative delta; target a retrace into $111–$110K. Invalidate on strong acceptance above $114K.
• Event-hedge: Into the leaders’ meeting and the Nov 1 tariff deadline, consider reducing leverage, pairing spot with protective options, or partial perps hedges sized to max loss you’ll tolerate.

Risks you must price in

• Headline reversal: A walk-back or delay in negotiations could unwind the move fast.
• Liquidity traps: Weekend conditions can exaggerate false breakouts and slippage.
• Open interest flush: Rapid funding swings and liquidation clusters can cascade either way.

What to watch next

• Official US/China statements and any timetable on tariff rollbacks.
• Asia open: reaction in CN/HK equities, DXY, and US futures for cross-asset confirmation.
• Derivatives metrics: funding, basis, and OI expansion for sustainability of the trend.
• Spot flows: stablecoin net inflows/outflows and BTC exchange balances.

Bottom line

A credible thaw in US–China trade tensions is a bullish macro spark—and crypto priced it first. Trade the move, not the emotion: anchor on $113.5K acceptance for continuation, keep invalidations tight, and hedge into binary headline risk. As always, DYOR and size positions to volatility.

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