Bitcoin is pressing against the $112K–$113K wall just as the market braces for a potential Federal Reserve rate cut next week. With odds near 98% for a 25 bps move and a weekly close fueling volatility, traders are asking one question: does a clean break here unlock a sprint to fresh highs—or set a trap before the FOMC headlines hit?

What’s Driving BTC Right Now

A mix of easing U.S. inflation data and aggressive rate-cut expectations has revived risk appetite. Bitcoin printed multiple green daily candles and is testing the $112K–$114K supply zone. Globally, most central banks have shifted toward easing, a backdrop that typically supports higher valuations for risk assets like crypto. Near term, BTC momentum is colliding with macro event risk: the October 29 FOMC, where tone and forward guidance may matter more than the cut itself.

Key Levels on the Chart

• $112K–$113K: Major resistance and a short-term holder cost basis zone. Acceptance above increases odds of trend continuation.
• $114K: Weekly close above strengthens breakout confirmation.
• $118K and $123K: Upside targets if $113K flips to support; extensions eyed toward $130K–$144K on strong momentum.
• $110K and $108.2K: Support and invalidation area for aggressive longs; a loss opens risk of deeper mean-reversion.

Why This Matters to Traders

When policy eases, liquidity tends to bid up risk assets—but positioning can get crowded into events. The proximity of FOMC to resistance increases the probability of whipsaws, stop hunts, and “sell-the-news” reactions. Understanding where short-term holders are positioned around $113K helps gauge supply pressure and the sustainability of any breakout.

Actionable Playbook for the Week

• Scenario plan: If price reclaims and holds above $113K on strong volume, look for a retest/hold of that level as support for continuation toward $118K–$123K.
• Event risk discipline: Into FOMC, reduce leverage, pre-set alerts at $110K, $113K, and $118K, and avoid chasing pre-announcement spikes.
• Confirm flow: Track perp funding, open interest, and cumulative volume delta. Rising OI with positive funding into resistance increases squeeze risk both ways.
• Hedge smartly: Elevated options IV into the event favors spreads over naked premium buying; consider partial hedges rather than full de-risk if trend holds.
• Risk controls: For breakout attempts, define invalidation below $110K–$108.2K; use staggered profit-taking near $118K and $123K.

Risks to the Bull Case

A 25 bps cut may be fully priced; a hawkish statement or pushback on further easing could trigger a sharp fade. Weekly close and Monday Asia open often amplify volatility, with thin liquidity enabling deep wicks. Failure to hold above $113K post-breakout increases the chance of a bull trap back into the range.

Bottom Line

Momentum is constructive, but the market is approaching a “prove it” zone right as macro headlines hit. The edge lies in patience: wait for acceptance above $113K or a clean rejection to define direction, and let risk parameters—not emotions—drive your next trade.

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