Bitcoin just vaulted above $115,000 as fresh CPI data landed at 2.9% YoY and spot Bitcoin ETF inflows swelled, but the real catalyst is still ahead: the FOMC decision. Traders are now pricing a rate cut and hunting momentum across majors and high-beta alts. The question isn’t what just happened—it’s whether this move has fuel to extend or becomes a textbook pre-Fed fade.

What’s moving the market

A cooler inflation print, a resilient labor read, and roughly $757M pouring into spot BTC ETFs created a powerful demand impulse. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed the CPI figure, while market chatter tilts toward a Fed cut next week. Meanwhile, rotation intensified: BNB and HYPE notched fresh highs as liquidity chased beta across the board.

Why it matters to traders

- A confirmed Fed easing path lowers real yields—historically supportive for risk assets, including BTC and large-cap alts. - Sustained ETF inflows can act as persistent bid, smoothing dips and compressing drawdowns—until flows slow. - Pre-FOMC volatility often expands; the first reaction to the policy statement can be a head fake, with the “real” move emerging on the press conference or day two.

Key levels and metrics to watch

• BTC levels: 112k–115k as breakout retest zone; 118k–120k supply pocket; below 109k risks a failed breakout.
• ETF flow tape: Closing net creations/redemptions—strong positive prints validate dips.
• Rates & USD: 2Y yield and DXY—risk-on needs softer dollar/lower front-end yields.
• Derivatives: Funding > 0.05%/8h, surging open interest, or negative perp basis flips are signals of crowded longs or stress.
• Options: 25-delta skew—growing call bias can precede blow-off or invite gamma squeezes.

Opportunities now

Momentum is real when macro, spot demand, and positioning align. If ETF inflows stay hot and the Fed guides dovish, the path of least resistance remains higher for BTC and high-liquidity alts. Rotations into large-cap beta (e.g., BNB) can outperform in the first leg. Be selective: thin-liquidity names can rip—but also rug.

Risks to respect

• Hawkish surprise: A smaller or delayed cut, or tighter guidance, can unwind leverage quickly.
• Flow reversal: A sudden drop in ETF creations removes the bid and exposes weak hands.
• Overcrowding: Elevated funding/OI leaves markets vulnerable to wick-down liquidations.
• Headline whipsaw: Jobs, inflation revisions, or geopolitical headlines can snap trends mid-session.

Actionable game plan (for education, not advice)

• Trade the retest: Look for acceptance above 112k–115k with declining funding before adding risk; cut if price loses 109k decisively.
• Confirm with flows: Only press longs on days when spot ETF inflows close net positive and DXY is soft.
• Hedge the event: Into FOMC, consider partial hedges (e.g., short-dated puts or reduced size) to survive headline volatility.
• Watch basis: If perp basis/funding blows out while price stalls, de-risk—squeeze risk flips to liquidation risk fast.
• Alt rotation: Favor high-liquidity alts over small caps; avoid chasing vertical candles.

Note on speculative tokens

Names like HYPE can post outsized moves, but they often carry thin liquidity, wide spreads, and sharp drawdown risk. Treat them as highly speculative trades, not investments.

Bottom line

This breakout is macro-backed, flow-supported, and fragile around the Fed. Let the tape confirm higher with steady ETF demand and cooler yields—then lean in. Until then, trade the levels, respect the event risk, and keep optionality.

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