Bitcoin Cash just punched through resistance to trade above $644—its highest level since April—while Bitcoin stalls against a thick supply wall near $117,000. Add a long-dormant whale moving 1,000 BTC from 2014, and you’ve got the perfect cocktail for a week of sudden squeezes and sharp reversals. Here’s what’s actually changing under the hood—and how to position with discipline, not FOMO.

BCH: Fear-Fueled Breakout, Not a Victory Lap

Sentiment was heavily bearish on BCH, yet price advanced and even outperformed BTC by ~7%—a classic contrarian thrust. When the crowd doubts sustainability, thin liquidity can amplify upside as shorts cover into strength.

Key context for traders: - The move above $644 is a notable breakout level. A clean retest-and-hold often separates continuation from a trap. - Momentum-driven pushes after sentiment washouts can overshoot, then snap back. Manage exposure accordingly.

How to engage: - Consider tracking acceptance above $644 on higher timeframes for continuation; loss of that level with rising sell volume signals risk of a fade. - Monitor funding/sentiment: if fear flips to euphoria too quickly, probability of mean reversion rises.

BTC: Thick Supply at $117K Is the Pivot

Glassnode’s heatmap shows supply clustering around $117k—a well-defined resistance. Price is hovering near $117,273 with modest daily/weekly gains. Technically, a MACD crossover and RSI ~61.65 lean constructive, suggesting room to extend if resistance clears. But until there’s convincing acceptance above this wall, expect chop.

Scenario planning: - Break and hold above $117k: thinner supply overhead can let momentum breathe. - Failure/rejection at $117k: consolidation or pullback remains base case.

Whale Wallet Awakens: Volatility Alert

A wallet holding 1,000 BTC bought around $840 moved funds for the first time in years, splitting into three wallets. Identity and intent are unknown. Such events often: - Add headline-driven volatility. - Increase attention on exchange inflows. Watch for movements from those wallets to known exchange addresses; that’s the higher-risk signal for near-term supply.

One Actionable Takeaway

Trade the level, not the narrative: let $117k decide your BTC bias.

• Confirmation: Look for multiple 4H/1D closes above $117k with rising volume/market breadth before leaning long.
• Invalidation: If price rejects and closes back below with momentum, treat it as range continuation—reduce risk or shift to mean-reversion setups.
• Execution: Keep position sizes modest around the inflection; volatility from whale flows can widen spreads and slip stops.

Risk Checklist Before You Click Buy/Sell

• Liquidity: Spikes around key levels can be illiquid—use limit orders where possible.
• Event risk: Track on-chain flows and scheduled macro/crypto events that can whipsaw price.
• Discipline: Define your stop and max loss in advance; avoid chasing BCH if $644 fails on a retest.

Bottom Line

BCH’s surge amid fear shows how quickly sentiment extremes can flip into fuel, but durability hinges on $644 holding. For BTC, $117k is the fulcrum—acceptance above favors trend continuation; rejection keeps the range alive. Keep plans conditional, risk tight, and let levels—not emotions—lead your trades.

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