Crypto is coiling at a critical junction as the Federal Reserve lines up a likely rate cut while Microsoft, Apple, and Alphabet unload earnings. The next 72 hours could decide whether BTC blasts through 115,000 or fakes out into a pullback—dragging ETH and XRP with it. With liquidity, inflation, and delayed economic data all in play, traders face an environment where confirmation beats prediction.

Macro Shockwave: Fed + Earnings

A rate cut typically boosts risk appetite by lowering yields and lifting liquidity—a tailwind for crypto. But sticky inflation and delayed data inject uncertainty, and markets punish guessing. Big Tech’s AI/cloud prints will shape risk tone; strong beats tend to lift crypto via the tech-to-BTC risk rotation, while misses can spark de-risking across digital assets. Translation: expect volatility into and after Wednesday’s decision and Thursday’s earnings wave.

Bitcoin (BTC): Levels, Triggers, Plan

BTC hovers near 112,600 after a steady recovery. The setup shows narrowing Bollinger Bands and a string of higher lows. Key zones: - Resistance: 115,000 (prior rejection). Break and hold opens 118,000–120,000. - Support: 110,000 first defense; deeper retest risk around 107,000 if the dollar rips.

Actionable plan:

• Confirmation long: 4H close above 115,000 with rising volume; target 118,000–120,000; invalidate on a clean loss of 112,000.
• Fade failure: Rejection at 115,000 with weakening momentum can offer a low-leverage short back to 110,000—tight risk.
• Macro watch: A post-Fed spike in the dollar or yields likely caps BTC; a dovish read-through favors continuation.

Ethereum (ETH): Break or Range

ETH sits around 4,000, wrestling with the 50-day SMA near 4,030 and Fib resistance near 4,072; a decisive reclaim above 4,100 confirms momentum. Supports at 3,800 and 3,600 continue to attract buyers. In easing cycles, ETH often outperforms as liquidity flows into higher-beta majors.

Actionable plan:

• Range trade: Buy dips toward 3,800 with tight invalidation under 3,760; take profit near 4,030–4,070.
• Breakout retest: Add on a reclaim-and-hold above 4,100; map 4,400 as stretch target.
• Risk toggle: Scale down size into FOMC; scale up only on confirmed closes, not wicks.

XRP: Oversold Bounce With Caveats

XRP shows early recovery signs near 2.62, reclaiming the middle Bollinger band. Watch 2.64 (0.382 Fib) and the 2.70 trigger. A clean push can extend toward the 2.85 upper band; failure risks a fade to 2.40 or 2.30 (0.618).

Actionable plan:

• Momentum continuation: Above 2.70, look for quick legs to 2.80–2.85; trail stops aggressively due to elevated intraday swings.
• Fail-and-fade: Rejections at 2.70 often snap back into the 2.40–2.30 demand zone—only for disciplined, tight-risk setups.

Event-Week Risk Management

Into binary macro events, execution > opinion. Protect capital:

• Reduce leverage and position size 12–24 hours pre-FOMC and into mega-cap earnings.
• Use limit orders; avoid chasing wicks during the first impulse post-decision.
• Let the second move be your trade: fade the first overreaction or join the continuation once structure confirms.
• Monitor the dollar (DXY), 2Y/10Y yields, and BTC dominance to gauge cross-asset pressure.

One Takeaway

Trade the reaction, not the forecast. If the Fed signals a benign easing path and Big Tech beats, look for BTC 115,000+ continuation, ETH toward 4,400, and XRP momentum to 2.80. A hawkish surprise or weak earnings favors patience, defending supports, and buying only once structure stabilizes.

If you don't want to miss any crypto news, follow my account on X.