Stellar’s price action is tightening into a volatility coil while majors drift sideways — a classic setup where patience can pay. With buyers defending key support and a **symmetrical triangle** building on the lower time frames, XLM sits one clean push away from a potential **breakout** that could unlock its next directional move. Here’s how to read it — and how to act with discipline.

Symmetrical Triangle: The Setup in Plain English

On the 4-hour chart, XLM has compressed into a **symmetrical triangle**, reflecting an equilibrium between buyers and sellers before expansion. Price recently rebounded from the **$0.302–$0.3024** base, reclaimed the **50-hour MA (~$0.3156)**, and is hovering near **$0.3195**, just under the triangle’s upper boundary. The recent bias has leaned **bullish**, making an upside resolution plausible — but not guaranteed.

Why This Matters to Traders

When **BTC/ETH** are flat, rotational flows often target strong LTF structures in alts. Triangles after a mild uptrend commonly resolve higher, and the **measured move** on this one points toward **$0.3823** (about +19% from current levels) if momentum confirms. This is less about prediction and more about preparing for a binary, rules-based trigger.

Key Levels to Watch

• Breakout confirmation: 4H close above the triangle’s upper trendline plus a reclaim of the 100-hour MA (~$0.3291).
• Upside objective: Measured move toward $0.3823 if momentum and volume expand post-breakout.
• Support/invalidations: Lose the 50-hour MA (~$0.3156) or break below the triangle’s lower trendline and the focus shifts back to $0.302–$0.3024.

How Traders Can Act

• Breakout-retest approach: Wait for a 4H close above the triangle, then look for a **retest** of the broken trendline/100h MA (~$0.3291) to hold as support before engaging.
• Inside-the-range plan: If no break, fade the triangle edges with tight risk, aiming for the midline — only for experienced range traders.
• Failure scenario: If the lower trendline breaks, step aside and watch $0.302 for potential reaction; avoid catching knives.
• Execution discipline: Use alerts on $0.329, set hard stops, size modestly, and favor confirmation over anticipation to reduce fakeouts.

Risks and Invalidations

Triangles can break either way; **fakeouts** around moving averages are common, especially on thin weekend liquidity. A sharp move in **BTC/ETH** can invalidate the XLM setup regardless of local strength. If price fails to hold above **$0.3156** after a breakout attempt, treat it as a warning that momentum is stalling.

Bottom Line

The single most actionable insight: prioritize a confirmed **4H close** above the triangle and a **reclaim of ~$0.329** before targeting the **$0.3823** measured move. If that signal doesn’t print, protect capital and wait — in compression phases, the edge lies in reacting to confirmation, not guessing the direction.

If you don't want to miss any crypto news, follow my account on X.