While Bitcoin and Ethereum chop sideways, Stellar’s XLM is quietly compressing into a potential energy release on the 4H chart—right beneath a decision zone where momentum can flip fast. The setup is clean: a symmetrical triangle, a reclaimed 50-hour MA, and a nearby 100-hour MA that doubles as a confirmation gate. If you prefer trades with well-defined triggers, targets, and invalidation, this is one to map before the move, not after.

Symmetrical Triangle, Clear Levels

XLM is consolidating in a symmetrical triangle, often a precursor to a decisive move after a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. Price recently bounced from the $0.3024 base, reclaimed the 50-hour MA (~$0.3156), and now hovers near $0.3195, just under the triangle’s upper boundary. A breakout followed by acceptance above the 100-hour MA ($0.3291) aligns with a measured move toward $0.3823—about +19% from current levels. Failure to break higher risks another test of the $0.302 region.

Why This Matters to Traders

With majors flat, attention rotates to altcoins showing clearer technicals. XLM’s LTF structure offers: - Asymmetric opportunity if confirmation triggers. - Defined invalidation if the pattern fails. - Manageable risk thanks to nearby reference MAs and triangle boundaries.

Trigger Map: Where Confirmation and Invalidation Live

• Bullish confirmation: 4H close above the triangle top and acceptance above $0.3291 (100-hour MA). Look for expanding volume (e.g., ≥1.5x recent average) to validate impulse.
• Upside objective: Measured move toward $0.3823. Consider scaling on the way up and respecting liquidity at round numbers.
• Bearish trigger: Loss of the triangle’s lower trendline. First watch zone: $0.302–$0.304 for a potential reaction or liquidity sweep.
• Invalidation: Post-breakout 4H close back inside the triangle, or sustained loss of the $0.3156 50-hour MA on heavy sell pressure.

Execution Playbook (Example)

• Prepare: Mark triangle bounds, $0.3156, $0.3291, and $0.302. Set alerts at the trendline and $0.3291.
• Confirm: Wait for a 4H close above the upper trendline plus hold above $0.3291 with rising volume. Avoid impulsive entries on the first wick.
• Enter: Either buy the breakout on confirmation or the first clean retest of the broken trendline/100-hour MA.
• Risk: Place stops below the retest low or below the triangle’s lower boundary (conservative). Size positions so a stop-out costs a fixed, small % of equity.
• Manage: Scale partials on strength; trail stops under higher lows. If momentum fades, don’t hesitate to de-risk.

Risks and How to Mitigate Them

• Fakeouts: Low-liquidity hours (especially weekends) can trigger wicks. Use the 4H close and volume as filters.
• Macro drivers: A sudden BTC/ETH impulse can invalidate LTF setups. Monitor majors alongside XLM.
• Timeframe mismatch: LTF signals can fail against HTF resistance. Align with your timeframe and avoid over-leverage.
• News volatility: Headline risk can break patterns. Keep position sizes modest into event uncertainty.

Bottom Line

Let the chart prove the move. The actionable takeaway: make a 4H close and acceptance above $0.3291 your green light toward the $0.3823 measured objective; below the lower trendline, step back and reassess near $0.302. Clear plan, clear levels, disciplined execution.

If you don't want to miss any crypto news, follow my account on X.