Money rushed back into Bitcoin in a single session as U.S. spot ETFs flipped from a four-day losing streak to strong net inflows, just as BTC ripped above $113,000 and precious metals suffered their worst day in years. Why did “safe-haven” capital rotate so violently, and what edge does that give traders heading into this week’s CPI print and a potential Fed rate cut?

What just happened

Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. posted $477.19 million in net inflows on Oct. 21 (SoSoValue), ending a $1B+ outflow streak. BlackRock’s IBIT led with $210.9M, ARK 21Shares’ ARKB added $162.85M, while Fidelity’s FBTC and Bitwise’s BITB combined for $103.44M. Notably, none of the 12 funds recorded net outflows on the day.

BTC spiked to a session high of $113,996—nearly 9% above Friday’s low of $104,778—as gold fell ~5% and silver ~8%, prompting a rapid “alternative safe-haven” bid into crypto. As of press time, BTC has cooled to around $108,124.

Why this matters to traders

ETF flows are a clean, high-frequency read on spot demand. Persistent positive prints tend to underpin price on dips and fuel breakouts. The day’s “all-green” ETF tape alongside a metals rout suggests cross-asset rotation flows—not just crypto-native momentum—are at work, which can be stickier over multi-sessions if macro tailwinds persist.

The macro setup: CPI and rate odds

Focus now shifts to Friday’s U.S. CPI (Oct. 24). Consensus points to ~3.1% YoY for September. Markets lean toward a 25 bps Fed cut next week—historically supportive for risk assets. Hints of a resolution to the U.S. government funding standoff also eased uncertainty, improving bid quality across crypto.

Flows and seasonality to watch

Despite last week’s heavy outflows, spot ETFs have amassed $4.21B net inflows so far in October, already topping September’s $3.53B. Historically, Q4 was the strongest stretch post the 2024 debut, with over $16B flowing into the 12 products. If Q4 seasonality repeats and geopolitical tensions cool, dips could continue to meet structural demand.

Actionable playbook

• Track daily ETF prints (IBIT, ARKB, FBTC, BITB) via SoSoValue; prioritize consistency of inflows over one-off spikes.
• Watch levels: resistance near $114k, support at $110k round number and $104,778 swing low; a clean reclaim/hold above $114k opens room for trend extension.
• Time entries around U.S. session closes—ETF allocations often settle by end-of-day and can influence late-day liquidity.
• Use gold/silver as cross-asset tells: continued metals weakness with positive ETF flows favors buy-the-dip bias; a metals rebound with ETF outflows warns of mean reversion.
• Options traders: monitor front-week IV into CPI; consider defined-risk structures if positioning for a volatility expansion.

Risks to respect

A hotter-than-expected CPI or a hawkish Fed could flip flows negative and pressure BTC. If gold’s selloff reverses sharply, rotation tailwinds may fade. Elevated leverage and thin overnight liquidity raise liquidation risk around data releases. Keep sizing disciplined and stops mechanical.

Bottom line

The return of broad-based ETF inflows alongside a cross-asset rotation out of metals gives bulls a tangible catalyst—just as CPI and the Fed loom. Let the flows confirm the move, trade the levels with discipline, and use macro to frame your risk.

If you don't want to miss any crypto news, follow my account on X.