One of crypto’s most-watched wallets just offloaded roughly $120M in XRP within an hour — and markets barely flinched. According to on-chain data shared by analyst Maartunn via CryptoQuant, Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen sold about 50 million XRP on Oct 20, continuing a multi-year pattern of selling into local strength. With cumulative realized gains near $764M since 2018, this is not noise — it’s a recurring signal that often nudges short-term price action and sentiment.

What Just Happened

Analysts tracked a steep balance drop from a wallet attributed to Larsen, aligning with recent upticks in retail attention. Historically, these transactions inject supply near local highs, create brief downside pressure, and then fade as liquidity absorbs the flow. This sale fits that playbook: short-term wobble, then stabilization once bids refill.

Why It Matters to Traders

Founder distributions are a clean window into supply overhang. Even if price holds initially, such moves can: - Cap rallies near resistance as fresh supply meets momentum. - Trigger stop cascades in thin liquidity environments. - Distort funding and open interest as traders rush to hedge.

Add in rising Bitcoin volatility and you’ve got a recipe for sharper intraday whipsaws across majors, including XRP. In short: the signal is less about doom and more about timing and positioning around liquidity.

How to Read the Signal

Watch for three confirmations before acting:

• Exchange inflows: Track large XRP transfers from known founder-linked wallets to exchanges. Inflows often precede or accompany supply events.
• Derivatives tilt: Monitor funding, OI, and long/short skew. A jump in OI with positive funding into supply is vulnerable to flushes.
• Absorption tells: Look for high-volume rebounds and reclaim of intraday VWAP or prior session highs — a sign that buyers absorbed the hit.

Actionable Playbook for XRP

• Short-term traders: Fade strength into known supply zones only if funding is rich and OI is rising; set tight invalidation above the previous local high.
• Liquidity waits: Stand aside until price reclaims a key level on rising volume (e.g., prior breakdown level). Enter on the retest, not the first touch.
• Hedging: If spot-long, reduce size during elevated exchange inflows or hedge via perps when funding turns positive and OI expands.
• Risk controls: Use dynamic stops (ATR-based) and predefine max drawdown. Founder flows can be clustered; one sell can lead to a sequence.
• Cross-market watch: Rising BTC volatility can amplify XRP moves. If BTC fails a breakout, tighten XRP risk instantly.

The Bottom Line

Larsen’s sales are a recurring, visible source of event-driven supply. In the near term, they can dent momentum; in the medium term, markets often normalize once liquidity absorbs the flow. Treat these events as tactical opportunities: wait for the flush, verify absorption, then trade the reclaim — or hedge when derivatives get stretched.

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