Bitcoin’s chart is whispering 1970s soybeans—the last time a rare broadening top signaled euphoria before a brutal 50% unwind. Veteran trader Peter Brandt now flags exhaustion and a possible slide toward $60,000, while bulls argue that macro catalysts and powerful Q4 seasonality could still drive new highs. Here’s how to trade the tension—without getting chopped in the middle.

What’s unfolding on the Bitcoin chart

Brandt sees a rare broadening top pattern forming—historically associated with major peaks. He compares it to 1970s soybeans, which fell ~50% after a similar setup. If history rhymes, a deep correction could target the $60,000 area.

Price context: Bitcoin trades around $108,832, up 62% year-over-year, with 16 green days in the last 30, and remains above its 200-day SMA. It’s outperformed 89% of the top 100 assets but still trails Ethereum’s cycle gains. A drawdown would pressure corporates like MicroStrategy (MSTR), already softer over the past month.

Counterpoint: Bulls led by Arthur Hayes envision a cycle top as high as $250,000, arguing the structure can still extend before any terminal move.

Why this setup matters now

Macro risk is back. Following the latest U.S. tariff headlines, risk assets pulled back and crypto sentiment flipped to Extreme Fear (25) on the Crypto Fear & Greed Index. That fear can either accelerate liquidation cascades—or fuel a sharp squeeze if data surprises positively.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s long-term uptrend (above the 200-day SMA) remains intact. This creates a split-tape: a plausible path to $60k if the pattern breaks down, versus a renewed impulse higher if macro cools and liquidity rotates back into crypto.

Key levels, dates, and signals to watch

• Monthly open: Price was rejected there recently; reclaim turns resistance into support and signals momentum.
• Higher lows: Holding recent higher lows preserves the bullish structure; lose them and range lows open up.
• 200-day SMA: Trend line in the sand; sustained closes below invite deeper drawdowns.
• $60,000: Brandt’s rough downside target if the broadening top resolves lower.
• CPI print (U.S.): A cooler inflation read could reopen the upside window, per 21Shares’ David Hernandez.
• Q4 seasonality: Historically Bitcoin’s strongest quarter (avg. ~78.49% per CoinGlass), with October often a standout.
• Gold rotation: A recent ~5.5% gold drop may precede risk-on rotation back into BTC and alts (Michaël van de Poppe).
• MSTR sensitivity: Citi notes upside if BTC approaches $181,000 in 12 months; conversely, drawdowns add equity pressure.

Actionable trade ideas

• Plan two scenarios: Map entries/exits for both a reclaim of the monthly open (trend continuation) and a breakdown toward $60k (mean reversion).
• Use the 200-day SMA as a pivot: Above it, favor pullback buys; below it, pivot to defense or hedges.
• Stagger bids near prior swing lows/liquidity; reduce size into strength at the monthly open and prior rejection zones.
• Hedge tactically: Consider protective puts or short-term collars into CPI; unwind if data is favorable and levels reclaim.
• Respect volatility: Keep leverage conservative; define invalidation on every trade to avoid getting trapped in a broadening range.
• Watch breadth: If BTC stabilizes while alts gain on rotation, consider selective exposure—but keep risk tight.

Bottom line

A textbook broadening top raises the odds of a sharp shakeout, yet strong seasonality and key macro prints could flip sentiment fast. Trade the levels, not the narratives: let the monthly open and the 200-day SMA dictate your bias, and size positions so you can survive either outcome—and still be around to capitalize when the trend becomes obvious.

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