Bitcoin is coiling at a pressure point where a single reclaim could flip the trend and unlock a run at a fresh ATH. Price is compressing between the 200D MA (~$109K) and the 100D MA (~$115K) while a 4H symmetrical triangle squeezes volatility. On-chain, mid-term holders just turned marginally profitable above $109K—a shift that often dampens near-term sell pressure. The decision zone is narrow, the order books are thin, and the next clean close will likely decide whether we tap the $120K–$122K liquidity pocket—or rotate back into the $108K demand.

What’s happening now

BTC rebounded from the $108K demand and is testing resistance at the $115K–$116K supply overlapping the 100D MA. The 4H chart shows a triangle breakout attempt; if sustained, momentum typically expands quickly. On-chain, the 3–6M Realized Price (~$109K) acts as a pivot—holding above it keeps mid-term holders in profit and supports trend continuation.

Why this matters to traders

A decisive daily close above $115K–$116K clears resting liquidity toward $120K–$122K, with a shot at the prior $126K high. Failure here likely invites a lower high and a sweep back to $109K–$108K, where liquidity has repeatedly reloaded bids.

Actionable levels and triggers

• Breakout long: Daily close and hold above $115K–$116K. Targets: $120K–$122K, stretch to $126K. Invalidation: daily close back below $114K.
• Momentum entry (4H): 4H close above the triangle + successful retest. Invalidation: loss of the breakout level or re-entry into the triangle.
• Fade rejection: Bearish reaction at $115K–$116K with a lower high = short back to $109K–$108K. Invalidation: 4H close above $116K.
• Buy the dip: Liquidity sweep into $108K followed by a strong reclaim of $109K (on-chain pivot) for mean reversion.

Risk and execution

Momentum is constructive but fragile. Prioritize confirmed closes over wicks, size down in compression, and place stops where your thesis is invalidated (e.g., below $108K on demand plays). Expect volatility expansion after the triangle resolves; avoid over-leverage into the decision zone.

Bottom line

The path to new highs opens if BTC reclaims and holds $115K–$116K. Until then, treat it as a range: buy strength above, buy reclaimed dips at $108K–$109K, and respect invalidations. Patience and disciplined entries will matter more than prediction in this tight tape.

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