A single wallet quietly scooped up roughly $179.4M in BTC over 30 days while price slipped beneath $115,000—is this smart-money accumulation into weakness or a prelude to a deeper drawdown? With BTC now below its 20-day SMA and testing the 50-day SMA, the next few sessions could decide whether we see a relief bounce or a swift trip toward the $112,000 liquidity zone.

What Just Happened

On-chain flows show one address receiving 1,521 BTC in a month, including a fresh 300 BTC buy about 11 hours ago. All transfers came from a FalconX hot wallet to the same destination, pointing to consistent accumulation rather than short-term rotation.

Price-wise, BTC slid from $117,500 to a low near $114,500 intraday, then bounced but failed to reclaim $116,000. Spot volume remains elevated, but buyer conviction is cautious.

Why This Matters Right Now

- BTC closed under the 20-day SMA (~$116,680) and is now testing the 50-day SMA (~$115,865). A confirmed daily close below the 50-day opens the door to $112,000. - RSI ~44.5 sits below the neutral 50 zone, signaling bearish momentum. - Large buyers accumulating into weakness can absorb sell pressure—but it doesn’t guarantee a bottom. If liquidity dries up, price can still hunt lower levels before a durable reversal.

Levels That Decide the Next Move

- $116,000: Reclaim-and-hold on the 4H could enable a push toward $116,700–$117,500. - $115,865 (50-day SMA): Daily close above = constructive; below = vulnerable. - $115,000: Psychological line; repeated failures increase downside risk. - $114,500: Intraday pivot; loss invites liquidity sweep lower. - $112,000: Next notable support and potential liquidity pocket for a flush-and-reversal.

Actionable Trade Setups

• Reclaim Setup (Long): Wait for a 4H close back above $116,000 with rising volume, then look for a pullback hold to enter. Targets: $116,700, then $117,500. Invalidation: 4H close back below $115,600.
• Breakdown Setup (Short): If daily closes below the 50-day SMA, look for a 4H lower-high rejection near $115,600–$115,900. Targets: $114,500 first, then $112,000. Invalidation: 4H close above $116,200.
• Liquidity Sweep (Long-at-Lows): Plan staggered bids $112,800–$112,000 for a wick reversal. Only hold if price reclaims $113,200 on strong bounce. Invalidation: sustained 1H close below $111,800.

Risk Management First

• Size down—RSI is weak and volatility is elevated.
• Use hard stops and pre-define invalidation levels; don’t average into uncertainty.
• Align entries with your timeframe: 4H confirmations for swing setups; 1H only for tactical scalps.
• Avoid chasing green candles after weak bounces; wait for retests.

On-Chain and Market Metrics to Watch

• Spot vs. perp basis and funding: Negative or flattening funding with rising OI can signal crowded shorts into support—fuel for squeezes.
• Order book liquidity: Track bids around $112K and asks at $116–117.5K to gauge absorption vs. rejection zones.
• Whale flows: Continued net inflows to the same address during dips suggest patient accumulation, but watch for distribution into strength.
• Daily close relative to the 50-day SMA: This remains the tactical line in the sand.

Bottom Line

A whale is buying size into weakness while momentum softens—a classic setup for either a sharp reversion if key levels are reclaimed or a quick flush toward $112K if support fails. Build a plan for both scenarios, trade confirmations over predictions, and let the 50-day SMA and $116,000 reclaim dictate bias.

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