Bitcoin just dropped double digits off its recent peak, and traders are split down the middle: is this the first leg of a deeper drawdown to the $60,000–$62,000 zone, or a textbook shakeout before a sprint to $140,000? The tape is flashing mixed signals—bearish rising wedge breakdowns alongside strong higher-timeframe supports—and the next confirmed break or reclaim could define the entire next quarter for crypto risk.

What’s happening now

Bitcoin is navigating two dominant narratives. Bears cite a 2021-style fractal and a confirmed break from a rising wedge on higher timeframes, eyeing a retrace toward the 200-week EMA near $60,000–$62,000. Bulls point to confluence at $104,000–$106,000 (the 200-day MA/EMA zone) as the “line in the sand,” arguing that a base here can fuel a reclaim of $113,000 and a run back above $124,500—with extension potential into $140,000. Macro tailwinds from recent Fed rate cuts add another layer of support, but only if price confirms on the chart.

Why this matters to traders

This is a classic pivotal zone: lose $104,000–$106,000 and liquidity could vacuum toward the weekly supports; reclaim and hold above $113,000 and momentum traders may chase back into trend. Getting the trigger wrong here risks being caught in forced liquidations or whipsaws; getting it right often sets up asymmetric R:R.

Key levels and triggers

• $104,000–$106,000 (200D MA/EMA): Hold = potential mid-term base; Lose on a daily/weekly close = opens path to $60,000–$62,000.
• $113,000: Reclaim and hold with rising volume = bullish continuation signal. Watch for a flag breakout toward $124,500 then $140,000.
• $60,000–$62,000 (200W EMA): Major higher-timeframe support if downside accelerates; expect volatility and reactive bounces.
• $124,500: Prior local high; acceptance above turns resistance into support for trend continuation.

Actionable playbook

• Reclaim long: If price reclaims $113,000 on strong volume, consider waiting for a retest/hold as support to target $124,500 and partials into $140,000. Invalidate on a clean loss of the reclaim level.
• Breakdown short/hedge: If BTC closes below $104,000 and fails to reclaim, short or hedge via perps with stops above the breakdown. First major target: $60,000–$62,000.
• Patience bids: Ladder conservative bids only near $60,000–$62,000 if reached, but respect that knife-catching needs strict stops and predefined size.
• Options for defined risk: Use call spreads on $113,000 breakouts; use put spreads or collars if $104,000 fails, to cap downside while avoiding liquidation risk.

Risk management you can’t skip

• Position sizing: Scale down in high-volatility regimes; let confirmations, not predictions, size your risk.
• Derivatives hygiene: Monitor funding and open interest; crowded leverage into key levels increases fakeouts and wicks.
• Macro calendar: Fed communications, CPI, and jobs data can flip intraday structure—avoid oversized positions into releases.

Bottom line

The market is offering a clean, binary map: reclaim and hold $113,000 for trend continuation toward $124,500–$140,000, or lose $104,000–$106,000 and prepare for a higher-timeframe test near $60,000–$62,000. Trade the confirmation, not the bias—and let risk controls do the heavy lifting.

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