What happens when the market’s biggest natural sellers stop selling into strength? Bitcoin just offered a live demo. As BTC pushed above $115,000, miner deposits into Binance slumped, stripping out a major source of spot supply while a record surge in active ASICs points to intensifying network investment. With supply absorbed and fewer coins hitting exchanges, the path toward $120,000 suddenly looks a lot less crowded.

What Changed: Miners Hit Pause on Exchange Selling

Historically, miners sell into rallies, especially pre/post-halving. This time, CryptoQuant’s analyst Arab Chain flags a sharp drop in BTC miner transfers to Binance since early September, implying miners are holding or using OTC channels. Either way, fewer spot inflows mean less immediate sell pressure. Combined with steady accumulation and U.S. spot ETF adoption, the market appears to be absorbing supply, improving upside odds into the $120,000 zone.

Why It Matters for Traders

When one of the largest structural sellers pulls back, order books thin on the offer side and price becomes more sensitive to marginal bids. But there’s nuance: - OTC selling can still happen, just less visible to spot price. - JA Maartunn notes a record 5.62M active ASICs (Aug 28) — heavy capex and competition mean miners may become price sensitive if margins compress. - A rebound in miner-to-exchange flows would quickly cap rallies. Stay data-driven.

Key Levels and Timing

• Support: $113,000–$113,500 (recent rejection turned base)
• Intraday pivot: $116,300 (session high)
• Near-term magnet/resistance: $120,000
• Medium-term resistance: $124,000 (August peak)
• Market context: Bitcoin dominance near 56%; some alts outperformed, but BTC’s stability anchors sentiment.

Actionable Trade Setups

• Breakout-Continuation: Consider scaling in on strong closes above $116,300 with targets into $120,000. Invalidate on a 4H close back inside the range (<$115,200).
• Buy-the-Dip: Layer bids between $113,500–$114,200 with a hard stop under $113,000. First take-profit near $116,000, runner toward $120,000.
• Options: Express directional bias with a $115k/$120k call spread to cap premium. Hedge downside with short-dated $112k puts into macro risk events.
• Risk Controls: Keep position size modest while miner flows remain volatile; reassess if miner-to-exchange spikes.

On-Chain and Flow Signals to Watch

• Miner Flows: CryptoQuant’s Miner to Exchange Flow and Miner Reserves. A fresh uptick = caution.
• Exchange Netflows: Binance BTC net deposits/withdrawals; sustained outflows support bids.
• Order Book/Liquidity: Heatmaps for offer walls near $118k–$120k; watch CVD for real spot demand vs perp-led moves.
• ETF Flows: U.S. spot BTC ETF net creations/redemptions — a key daily driver.
• Leverage: Funding, open interest, and basis. Rising OI + positive funding without spot leads = squeeze risk.
• Mining Economics: Hashprice, difficulty, and active ASIC trends to gauge potential miner sell incentives.

Risks and What Could Fail

• Miners resume exchange selling into $118k–$120k, capping the breakout.
• ETF outflows or macro risk-off (yields/DXY up) undercut spot demand.
• Alt rotation siphons flows; BTC stalls while volatility migrates elsewhere.
• False breakout: wick above $116k followed by swift rejection back to $113k.

Bottom Line

With miners stepping back from exchange selling and spot demand holding, BTC has a cleaner runway toward $120,000. The edge goes to disciplined traders who track miner flows, ETF prints, and order-book liquidity — and who define invalidation levels before pressing the long.

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