Michael Saylor just rewrote the rules of his own game: Strategy Inc. is now willing to sell stock even when its shares trade below the once-sacrosanct 2.5x mNAV premium. That single policy shift can swing the supply/demand balance for the equity, compress or revive the premium to Bitcoin, and determine how aggressively the company fuels its next wave of BTC buys. For traders, this is a real-time test of how far a BTC-treasury model can stretch without breaking holders through dilution.

What Changed—and Why It Matters

Strategy had pledged not to issue equity if the stock traded at less than 2.5x its modeled net asset value tied to Bitcoin holdings, allowing exceptions only for debt interest or preferred dividends. The updated language now permits issuance below that threshold “when otherwise deemed advantageous.”

Why this matters: - It adds financing flexibility as the stock’s premium to BTC narrows. - It increases the probability of offerings during weak premiums, elevating dilution risk. - It helps Strategy keep buying BTC even if demand for its preferred equity program softens amid competition from Bitcoin ETFs and other BTC-treasury plays.

The Numbers Traders Need

In the last week, Strategy bought 430 BTC for about $51.4M, following a 155 BTC add the week prior. The firm now holds 629,376 BTC at an average price of $73,320. With BTC near $119,666, Strategy sits on more than $26B in unrealized gains.

Yet the stock is down about 22% since November while BTC has risen roughly 23%—a striking divergence that underscores the growing relevance of both the premium and potential dilution over pure BTC beta.

How This Can Move the Tape

- Premium mechanics: If the mNAV premium compresses, the willingness to issue below 2.5x introduces a potential supply overhang, pressuring the stock relative to BTC. If the premium widens, equity issuance could moderate, supporting outperformance. - Funding optionality: Expanded issuance language is a buy-the-dip engine for BTC accumulation—but paid for by equity holders. - Program demand: If investor appetite for Strategy’s perpetual preferred stays weak, common stock becomes the more likely funding lever, again tilting risk toward dilution. - Volatility regime: Any offering or ATM activity can create gap risk, skewing short-term returns vs. spot BTC and inviting pair-trade opportunities.

Actionable Trades and Risk Controls

• Track the mNAV premium: Compare Strategy’s market cap to the USD value of its BTC stack. A shrinking premium raises dilution odds; an expanding premium favors relative long exposure to the stock.
• Watch filings and clues: Monitor 8-Ks, ATM usage updates, and preferred program tweaks. Any “uses of proceeds” line item tied to BTC buys can be a near-term equity headwind.
• Pair-trade setups: During premium compression or ahead of possible offerings, consider long BTC / short Strategy. On premium expansion, flip to long Strategy vs BTC with disciplined stops.
• Options tactics: In anticipated issuance windows, put spreads can express downside while containing premium outlay; call spreads can target premium reflation post-issuance digestion.
• Risk controls: Respect overnight gap risk from sudden issuance; size smaller, pre-define exits, and avoid leverage stacking across correlated legs.

Bottom Line

Strategy’s new flexibility keeps the BTC accumulation flywheel spinning—but it shifts more execution risk onto equity holders. Trade the premium mechanics, not the narrative: map issuance risk to premium levels, let filings guide timing, and use pair trades or options to express views with controlled downside.

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