Bitcoin is wobbling at the edge of a psychological cliff. After sliding to $108,938 and printing a weekly low near $104,000, a leading bank analyst now calls a break below $100,000 “inevitable”—yet potentially short-lived. With geopolitical headlines fanning risk-off flows and a surge in crypto liquidations, traders face a high-stakes moment where disciplined preparation can turn fear into opportunity.

What’s Driving The Drop

Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick warned that a dip below $100,000 looks likely, even as he expects it could be brief. The call comes just two weeks after Bitcoin’s new ATH around $126,000, followed by a ~14% retrace amid rising fragility across risk assets.

Renewed U.S.–China tensions—after Donald Trump threatened higher tariffs—sparked aggressive deleveraging. Markets saw what’s considered the largest wave of liquidations since Bitcoin’s creation. According to Coinglass data, about $186.52M in derivatives positions were liquidated within 24 hours, including $155M from longs—evidence of a thin, jumpy tape.

Why The $100K Level Matters

Round numbers like $100,000 attract clustered stops and liquidity. When such levels break during high volatility, moves can be swift, and mean-reversion attempts often follow. For traders, that means two-sided risk: a fast flush through $100K that either cascades lower on loss of confidence—or a sharp reclaim that traps late shorts.

Institutional Dip-Buying Is Active—But Not a Guarantee

The firm led by Michael Saylor used the dip to acquire 168 BTC at an average of $112,051, bringing holdings to 640,418 BTC (~$69B). If price revisits recent highs, that stash would exceed $80B. This underscores a key dynamic: institutions may view retracements as strategic accumulation zones. Still, institutional bids don’t guarantee a bottom; they simply add a supportive flow to monitor.

Actionable Trade Plan For High-Vol Regimes

• Define scenarios: Prepare for both a clean break and a swift reclaim of $100K. Look for a potential “sweep-and-reclaim” setup: a dip below the level followed by a strong spot-led bounce, falling funding, and stabilizing open interest.
• Control leverage: Reduce or avoid high leverage while liquidations run hot. Prefer spot or low-leverage per-trade risk with clear invalidation.
• Stagger execution: Use laddered limit orders rather than all-in entries. Place protective stops; avoid chasing wicks during thin liquidity.
• Read derivatives: Track funding, open interest, and liquidation heatmaps (e.g., Coinglass). Rising OI and positive funding into resistance can signal another flush risk.
• Watch macro: Monitor tariff headlines, dollar strength, and yields—macro pulses are driving cross-asset volatility.
• Respect risk: Keep position sizes modest, maintain dry powder, and be mindful of weekend gaps and off-hours liquidity.

Key Risks To Respect

If the break under $100,000 coincides with a broader loss of confidence, the rebound may be delayed and the drawdown deeper. Altcoins typically show higher beta—expect amplified moves. Liquidity pockets during off-hours can widen spreads and increase slippage.

The Bottom Line

The market is lining up a critical test. A flush below $100,000 could be the final shakeout before the next leg higher—or the start of a more prolonged de-risking if sentiment fractures. Don’t predict—plan. Stay agile, let price action confirm, and execute with risk-first discipline.

If you don't want to miss any crypto news, follow my account on X.