Bitcoin just flashed a rare mix of strength during weakness: Glassnode reports Relative Unrealized Loss still below 5% and price reclaiming the 0.85 cost-basis band—conditions that historically align with bull-market pullbacks rather than trend breaks. In plain terms, the market is absorbing volatility without broad capitulation. If this reclaimed support holds, momentum can rebuild; if it fails, expect a deeper liquidity hunt.

What Just Happened On-Chain

Glassnode’s on-chain read shows unrealized losses remain shallow, signaling holder resilience despite the recent drawdown. Realized cap continues to grow—evidence of sustained capital inflows rather than forced exits. Long-term holders are steady, and there’s no sign of large institutional distribution. With as much as ~95% of addresses in profit, the market structure remains characteristically bullish even as price chops.

Why It Matters For Your Next Trade

Low Relative Unrealized Loss means most participants aren’t trapped, reducing the risk of cascade selling. However, a high share of addresses in profit can increase sell pressure on strength as traders take gains into rallies. The balance between these forces often produces a buy-the-dip, sell-the-rip environment—until a decisive breakout or a clear loss of key support resolves the range.

The Level That Decides Momentum

The 0.85 cost-basis band is the line in the sand. Reclaiming it flips a prior risk area into potential support. Holding above typically indicates the market can rebuild trend energy; losing it again opens the door to a revisit of lower territory. Make this band your primary invalidation: above it, lean constructive; below it, play defense.

Actionable Strategy

• Track the pivot: Set alerts for daily closes relative to the 0.85 cost-basis band. Two to three consecutive closes above strengthen the bull case.
• Define invalidation: For longs, place tight invalidation just below the band or the most recent higher low. If lost, exit and reassess.
• Wait for confirmation on dips: Look for spot-led bounces, reduced funding, and STH-SOPR > 1 on retests to validate demand on pullbacks.
• Mind profit-taking: With ~95% in profit, fade overextended moves into resistance; rotate into strength only on clean break-and-retests.
• Risk sizing: Keep per-trade risk ≤1–2% of equity; volatility remains elevated even as on-chain looks constructive.
• Play both scenarios: If the band holds, trade the range and buy pullbacks; if it’s lost, stand aside or target lower liquidity sweeps and wait for a reclaim.

Risks To Respect

A high share of profitable addresses can create overhang supply at lower highs. Macro catalysts, policy headlines, and derivatives leverage buildups can quickly flip the tape. If the 0.85 band fails on volume—especially alongside rising funding and expanding open interest—guard against trend acceleration to the downside.

Bottom Line

On-chain remains bullish-leaning during a corrective phase. Trade the signal, not the noise: respect the 0.85 cost-basis band as your pivot, require confirmation, and let invalidations do the heavy lifting on risk control.

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