October is shaping up to test every trader’s playbook. Bitcoin is hovering below the $110,500 lid as anticipation for potential ETF approvals and the well-known seasonal pattern of “Uptober” collide. Will this be a repeat of 2017/2021’s relentless rally—or a trap that flushes both sides before the move?

What’s Happening Now

Bitcoin trades near $109,500 after failing to break $110,500 intraday. Analyst Carl Moon expects a shakeout toward $104,000 before a potential surge toward $150,000, which would mark new highs. Altcoins are stabilizing after pullbacks, with eyes on SUI thanks to Token2049 and SUIFest catalysts. The WAL & SUI partnership flagged payment upgrades in Korea, with projected annual volume near $4B. On the macro side, rate-cut chatter continues, and the PCE print is in focus—but crypto price impact remains muted until a decisive daily close confirms direction.

Why It Matters to Traders

October has historically skewed bullish for crypto, especially during major narrative shifts like ETF milestones and institutional accumulation. But seasonal tailwinds don’t erase liquidity risks: weekends can amplify wicks, and crowded positioning into resistance often triggers violent squeezes. The edge goes to traders who plan around levels, catalysts, and risk.

Bitcoin: Trap Below $110.5K or Launchpad?

Watch the $110,500 ceiling. A daily close above it opens continuation toward $113K–$116K, while failure increases odds of a liquidity sweep toward $108K and possibly $104K (major bid zone). For momentum traders, the cleanest signal is a breakout-close above resistance, then a low-volatility retest that holds. Invalidations matter: if price loses $104K on a daily close, reassess the bullish roadmap.

Altcoins: SUI, WAL and Event-Driven Flow

SUI’s setup is buoyed by upcoming events and improving payments narrative. Technically, bulls want to see a sustained reclaim above the 20–3D MA with rising volume; that’s often the spark for multi-week rotations. Event-driven plays can outperform in October—but rotation is fast. If Bitcoin volatility spikes, expect altBTC pairs to whipsaw.

Macro and ETF Triggers to Track

Rate expectations and the PCE read can nudge risk appetite, but the bigger swing factor is ETF headlines and spot demand. Keep an eye on U.S. yields, DXY, and any regulator commentary. A supportive macro tape plus ETF optimism is the recipe for an Uptober extension.

Actionable Playbook (Not Financial Advice)

• BTC Levels: Map $110,500 (breakout), $108K (mid-range), $104K (deeper demand). Trade the confirmation: daily close and retest >$110.5K for momentum; fade back into range if it fails.
• Positioning: Size down into the weekend; avoid high leverage into resistance. Use hard stops and pre-define invalidation.
• Market Structure: Track funding, open interest, and spot vs perp premiums. Rising OI + flat spot often precedes squeezes.
• Alts: For SUI/WAL-related setups, align entries with catalyst dates and volume expansion. Consider pairing vs BTC to reduce USD noise.
• Data to Monitor: ETF news flow, stablecoin netflows, exchange balances, dollar index, and the daily close. Let the close guide bias.

Risks to Respect

A delayed or negative ETF headline, a hot inflation print, or abrupt dollar strength can flip risk quickly. Thin weekend books invite erratic wicks—plan entries where you’re happy to be filled, not where you hope price pauses.

Bottom Line

Uptober is a tailwind, not a guarantee. Let levels, liquidity, and confirmation lead your bias. One disciplined trade with clear invalidation beats three impulsive chases in front of resistance.

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