Trust is evaporating across banks, governments, and even employers—and that loss of trust is fast becoming the most powerful catalyst in crypto. Market analyst Jordi Visser argues the world is sliding into a Fourth Turning phase—an intergenerational reset—where a neutral, permissionless asset like BTC can gain adoption regardless of which macro path unfolds. With consumer confidence sagging, inflation sticky, and tariff risks rising, Bitcoin’s role as an alternative, global settlement layer is stepping into the spotlight.

What’s Happening

Visser told Anthony Pompliano that a growing share of people no longer trust legacy institutions—from banks to currency to debt structures. That backdrop aligns with a “K-shaped” economy: asset holders at the top see wealth grow, while those at the bottom get squeezed by inflation. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment data shows only 24% expect stable spending by 2026, and a majority expect higher unemployment—signs of persistent economic anxiety.

Why This Matters to Traders

When broad confidence declines, capital often migrates toward assets perceived as hard money or outside policy control. Bitcoin’s attributes—fixed supply, global liquidity, and censorship resistance—can attract both retail and institutional flows during policy uncertainty. Add in spot ETF rails and growing corporate participation, and you have a structurally improving demand picture that can accelerate during macro stress.

Key Risks to Track

A trust breakdown doesn’t guarantee a straight line up. Tight financial conditions, liquidity shocks, or regulatory actions can hit crypto beta hard. Traders should monitor:

• Rates and USD: Rising real yields or a stronger DXY can pressure risk assets, including BTC.
• Labor and inflation prints: Upside surprises can bolster hawkish policy, dampening risk appetite.
• Tariff headlines: Trade tensions can amplify volatility across assets and FX, affecting crypto correlations.
• Regulatory trajectory: Enforcement or new rules can shift venue/liquidity dynamics quickly.
• Leverage build-up: Funding rates, perpetual basis, and options skew can signal froth and potential flushes.

Actionable Moves

• Define the role of BTC: Treat it as a macro hedge and long-duration asset; size positions to survive volatility.
• Stagger entries: Use dollar-cost averaging or laddered limit orders to reduce timing risk during data-heavy weeks.
• Watch macro catalysts: CPI, PCE, payrolls, unemployment, and tariff announcements—trade lighter into prints and scale after clarity.
• Track flows: Spot ETF net flows, stablecoin supply growth, and exchange balances help confirm or refute trend strength.
• Use options for asymmetry: Protective puts or call spreads can balance directional exposure into uncertain events.
• Correlations matter: Rising correlation with equities signals broader risk-on/off; falling correlation may validate the “alternative system” bid.
• Have invalidation: Predefine drawdown limits and levels that negate your thesis to avoid emotional decisions.

Bottom Line

If the Fourth Turning thesis plays out, Bitcoin’s adoption flywheel can accelerate as trust in traditional pillars deteriorates. But the path will remain volatile. Build a process that aligns BTC’s structural case with disciplined risk management, and let macro data—not headlines—dictate your sizing and timing.

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