October was supposed to be Bitcoin’s boost—yet price action has stalled, volatility has thinned, and BTC is stuck in no-man’s land. Analyst James Van Straten flags a rare stand-off: price is compressing between the 200-day SMA and 365-day SMA for the fourth time this cycle, a setup that has historically stretched for weeks or even months. When compression ends, moves are often fast. The question now is simple: who breaks first—bulls or bears?

What’s Happening

Bitcoin is consolidating between the 200-day SMA (~$107,846) and the 365-day SMA (~$100,367), with the analyst highlighting $103,509 as the 2025 investor cost basis and $100,000 as a major psychological floor. The 200-day SMA has acted as primary support for most of the post-2023 cycle; when it fails, the 365-day SMA has caught price as secondary support. This sideways band is the current battlefield.

Why This Matters to Traders

The 200-day SMA often marks the bull/bear dividing line. A decisive break and hold above it can signal a trend resumption and fuel momentum strategies. Failure to reclaim it increases the odds of range trading, mean reversion, and fake-outs. In tight ranges, liquidity hunts around obvious levels (like $100k) become frequent—risk management matters more than hero entries.

Levels That Matter Now

• $112,100: Short-term cost basis; reclaiming this would confirm bullish follow-through above the 200-day.
• $107,846: 200-day SMA; the trend line in the sand.
• $103,509: 2025 investor cost basis; a pivot for positioning bias.
• $100,367: 365-day SMA; secondary support in prior dips.
• $100,000: Psychological level and high-liquidity magnet prone to wicks.

Actionable Game Plan

• Set alerts at $112,100, $107,846, $103,509, and $100,367 to track regime shifts in real time.
• Range approach: Many traders fade moves toward $107,846/$112,100 and bid near $103,509/$100,367 with tight invalidation, expecting mean reversion.
• Breakout approach: Wait for a daily close and hold above the 200-day, then look for a retest that holds to reduce false-break risk.
• Risk controls: Reduce size in chop, predefine invalidation (e.g., a clean daily close below $100k for long setups), and prefer spot or low leverage.
• Confirm with market structure: Watch funding, open interest, and ETF flows; rising price with cooling OI suggests healthier spot-led demand.

Risk Scenarios to Respect

- Wick traps through $100k that swiftly reverse can liquidate overleveraged longs and shorts alike. - A rejection at the 200-day without expansion in spot volume increases the odds of prolonged sideways action. - Macro or liquidity shocks can push price into the $100,367–$103,509 pocket, where reactions tend to be violent.

Bottom Line

Until BTC cleanly reclaims the 200-day SMA with conviction, treat conditions as a range with heightened fake-out risk. Patience, preplanned levels, and disciplined execution will beat impulse trades in this environment. When the squeeze resolves, momentum will likely reward those who waited for confirmation.

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